As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, US military aid in the first phase is expected to be decisive for the survival of Ukrainian forces, with victory, however, remaining a difficult task that still depends on many factors, he says in analysis by the Associated Press.

The weapons and ammunition provided for in the $61 billion in US military aid will allow Ukraine to slow the Russian military’s advance and reduce its attacks on troops and civilians. At the same time, Ukraine will gain time to proceed with a long-term plan to recover the territories that are under Russian occupation.

With aid, Ukraine remains at war

According to Michael Clarke, visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London, the aid will primarily help Ukraine stay in the war and not be outright defeated.

The US House of Representatives approved the package on Saturday after months of delays due to disagreements from Republicans who cited concerns about US involvement in the war. The bill passed the Senate on Tuesday and is now expected to be signed into law by President Joe Biden on Wednesday.

The funding could have immediate visible effects on the front line in eastern and southern Ukraine, where Russia’s outnumbered army is slowly gaining ground against Ukrainian forces, which have been depleted by military shortages.

Approving the aid will allow Ukraine to draw artillery ammunition from stockpiles while receiving more equipment from American stockpiles in Poland and Germany and later from the US.

The first shipments are expected to arrive early next week, said David Arahamia, a lawmaker from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party.

A more pessimistic view, however, is expressed by opposition lawmaker Vadim Ivchenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament’s National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee, who says logistical challenges and red tape could delay missions to Ukraine by two to three months and it will take even longer before they reach the front line.

While the details of the missions are classified, Ukraine is in immediate need of artillery shells to stop Russian troops from advancing, as well as anti-aircraft missiles to protect people and infrastructure from missiles, drones and bombs.

What comes first is not always what front-line commanders need most, said Arahamia, the Ukrainian lawmaker, as he points out that even a military giant like the US does not have all military equipment in stock.

A battle against time

Ukraine’s progress in its field still depends on how quickly it receives Western aid.

Many experts believe that both Ukraine and Russia are exhausted from two years of war, and neither will be able to mount a major offensive until next year, capable of yielding major strategic gains.

But Russia is pushing forward at several points along the 1,000-kilometer front, using tanks, infantry troops and satellite-guided glide bombs to pound Ukrainian forces. Russia is also hitting power plants and pounding Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, which is only 30 kilometers from the Russian border.

In terms of strategic planning, Ivchenko says the goal for Ukraine’s forces now is to “hold the line” until the bulk of the new supplies arrive by mid-summer. They can then focus on trying to recapture recently lost territory in the Donetsk region.

According to him, a more aggressive movement of the Ukrainian armed forces in this direction is timed towards the end of the summer.

Some military experts doubt that Ukraine has the resources to launch even small attacks anytime soon.

Matthew Saville, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute, believes US funding will help stabilize Ukraine’s position for this year, but it will be able to move on to larger operations in 2025.

In the best-case scenario for Ukraine, US aid would give commanders time to reorganize and train its military, applying the experience of the failed offensive in the summer of 2023. It might also prompt Ukraine’s allies in Europe to increase aid. .

“So this wasn’t about Ukraine and the United States, this really affected our entire coalition of 51 countries,” said US Rep. Bill Keating, a Democrat who visited Kiev on Monday as part of a four-member congressional delegation.

Zelensky insists that Ukraine’s war goal is to recapture all of its territory from Russia, including Crimea, which Kiev illegally annexed in 2014. Even if the war eventually ends through negotiations, as many experts believe, Ukraine wants to come to the discussions from a stronger position.

Many factors determine the outcome of the war

Whatever happens on the battlefield, Ukraine still faces variables beyond its control.

Former US President Donald Trump has said he will end the war within days of taking office. At the same time, within the European Union of 27 states there are leaders who oppose the equipment of Ukraine such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fičo.

Meanwhile, in order to win the war, Ukraine says it needs longer-range missiles that it could use for potentially game-changing operations, such as cutting off occupied Crimea, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

In particular, it is asking for longer-range Army tactical missiles, known as ATACMs, from the US and Taurus cruise missiles from Germany. Both governments are resisting Kiev’s calls for the mission because it is capable of striking targets deep inside Russian territory.

The new bill authorizes the president to send the longer-range ATACMS to Ukraine, about 300 kilometers, but it is not clear what this will mean in practice.

At times, the weapons have arrived late or not at all with President Zelensky recently pointing out that Ukraine is still waiting for the F-16 fighter jets it was promised a year ago.

Meanwhile, Russia is using its troop and weapons advantage to push back Ukrainian forces, seeking to make maximum gains before new Ukrainian supplies arrive.

For weeks it has been ravaging the small eastern town of Chasiv Yar, where it has suffered heavy casualties, with 900 Russian soldiers killed or wounded a day in the war, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence.

Capturing the strategic city would allow the Russian army to move towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, key Ukrainian-controlled cities in the eastern Donetsk region, a major victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At the same time, Russian pressure is aimed not just at gaining territory, but at undermining Zelensky and bolstering his critics who criticize the Ukrainian president’s war plan, said Clarke of King’s College London.