The term “unpredictable” characterizes a pattern of behavior that characterizes Turkish President Erdogan’s foreign policy. In recent years the Greeks have found that their most important neighbor is able to change its policy overnight. The cancellation – officially referred to as a postponement – of the Turkish president’s planned visit to the White House on May 9 fits into this pattern. For years, a visit to the White House has been a top priority for the Turkish president. Ministers and diplomats from both sides worked towards this goal until the last minute. And suddenly, out of nowhere, Turkey backed down. “We have not been able to harmonize the schedules of the two sides”, says the not very convincing explanation of the American embassy in Ankara.

The scripts

There are reasons that prevented the summit meeting from taking place. Apart from purely political reasons, differences in protocol also seem to have played a role. Sources report differences of opinion regarding the formality of the visit and the level of hospitality offered by the Americans. According to information, Erdogan expected to be received with all the honors provided by the White House protocol for distinguished guests. The Americans seem to have planned just two hours for the guest from Turkey. Not even a dinner at the White House was on the agenda. But the decisive reason for the cancellation or postponement at the last minute is perhaps not so much issues of protocol – although these play an important role for Erdogan – as specific political interests. This applies to both sides. Deep differences have overshadowed bilateral relations for years. Erdogan’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system has poisoned relations more than almost any other issue.

Differences over Syria, where Ankara is militarily fighting Kurdish militias, America’s most important allies, are another issue on which no agreement is in sight. Putin’s war against Ukraine has fueled new tensions as Ankara has been a very reluctant and unilateral participant in Western sanctions against Russia. Recently, there have been signs of a rapprochement between Ankara and Washington: in a long process reminiscent of scenes from an oriental bazaar, Washington persuaded the Turks to agree to Sweden’s accession to NATO in exchange for the delivery of state-of-the-art F 16 fighter jets for the Turkish air force. A reception for Erdogan at the White House was to seal the political exchange.

A serious blow to bilateral relations

But the war in Gaza caused new unrest. Ankara and Washington are in opposite camps in the Middle East and their differences could not be greater. The ongoing war in Gaza has long assumed domestic political dimensions for both Erdogan and Biden. One reason for Erdogan’s defeat in the recent local elections was the rise of the Islamist New Prosperity Party, which successfully accused the president of a lack of solidarity with Palestine. Biden still has the election ahead of him. Television images with Hamas ally Erdogan in the White House could play into the hands of his political opponents. For bilateral relations, the postponement of the visit is a serious blow. From the beginning, Biden had left little doubt that he did not count Erdogan among his best political friends, which is why the Turkish president had to wait more than three years to be invited.

Ankara’s surprise postponement, however, is unlikely to boost Biden’s sympathy for his Turkish counterpart. It is argued that the latest developments in US-Turkish relations are particularly favorable to President Putin, as the cancellation of Erdogan’s visit weakens the cohesion of the Western alliance. For two reasons this argument is not convincing. On the one hand, Turkey is only partly on the side of the West in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. It continues to aim at its own interests and act individually. On the other hand, Putin, like Biden now, continues to aim for her own interests and act individually. On the other hand, Putin, like Biden, has also fallen victim to the unpredictable nature of the Turkish president. The Russian president’s visit to Turkey, which has been repeatedly announced by Moscow, has been postponed more than once and is pending.