Democratic President Joe Biden has a narrow lead over Republican predecessor Donald Trump ahead of the November 5 US presidential election, as the real estate mogul continues to stand trial in New York for fraud, a two-day Ipsos poll showed. on behalf of the Reuters news agency and was completed yesterday Tuesday.

According to the poll’s findings, 40% of registered voters said they would vote for Mr. Biden if the election were held yesterday, compared to 39% who would vote for Mr. Trump. That percentage is down from the four-point lead the Democratic president had in a previous survey, conducted April 4-8. They are remarkably within the margin of statistical error (±3%) for registered voters, while many Americans remain undecided six months before the polls open.

28% of registered voters said they have not yet chosen who they will vote for, tend to choose a third party, or may not vote at all.

8% would vote for Robert Kennedy the younger, anti-vaccinationist who is running as an independent.

Given the US political system, elections are generally decided in specific contested states that choose the electoral college.

Ahead of the November rematch — the first in 70 years — both main contenders have significant weaknesses. Mr Trump spent most of April in a Manhattan courtroom as part of the first of four criminal trials he faces. The specific case concerns the accusation that he covered up a payment to a porn star to buy her silence about their sexual intercourse before the 2016 election. Previous polls have shown that voters take the case seriously. Mr Trump has pleaded not guilty and denies having sex with the actress.

The other trials involve charges over Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, in which he was defeated by Joe Biden, and his handling of classified documents after he left office in 2021. Mr Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the cases.

On the other hand, Mr. Biden’s main weakness is concerns about his age—he is 81, but his opponent is not exactly in his prime either, he is 77—while a portion of Democratic voters criticize the unreserved his support for Israel in the war against Hamas, with an extremely heavy civilian toll in the Gaza Strip.

The poll of a sample of 856 registered voters was designed to show support for the two candidates in various ways. Most indicators suggest that an inconclusive match is imminent.

Mr. Trump leads (2%) in the total sample, Mr. Biden (1%) among registered voters. Citizens who are already registered are considered more likely to actually vote.

Just two-thirds of eligible voters participated in the 2020 contest, when Mr. Biden prevailed.

Mr. Trump leads among men (41%-35%), Mr. Biden among women (35%-33%). The Republican leads among voters without a college degree, the Democrat leads among those who do.