After his death RiceIran’s elections are expected to be a balancing act for the rulers as low turnout may call into question the legitimacy of the political system.

Iran’s political establishment is faced with the dilemma of opening up the electoral process and involving moderate opponents or limiting candidates, potentially leading to low turnout.

For decades, its leaders Iran cited high voter turnout in their elections as proof of the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic’s political system.

The two options and the risks

As voter turnout has plummeted in recent years, the upcoming elections to be held in June and following the death of President Ibrahim Raishi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, will be faced with two options, each of which poses risks.

The first is to ensure that the presidential elections, which the Constitution stipulates must be held within 50 days of Raisi’s death, are open to all, with both hardliners and reformers participating. This choice, however, could lead the country in the opposite direction to the one sought by the Iranian establishment.

In the second option, Khamenei can follow his past strategy and exclude not only reformist opponents but even moderate candidates, opposition figures. This choice can lead to low participation which will then be interpreted as a condemnation of the authoritarian regime.

Drop in voter turnout

Voter turnout in Iran has been on a downward trend in recent years. In 2016, more than 60% of the country’s voters participated in the parliamentary elections. By 2020, the figure had dropped to 42%. Despite Iranian officials’ assurances of an increase in participation in the March elections, it remained low at 41%.

Just a week before Raisi’s death, the last round of parliamentary elections in Tehran garnered only 8% turnout. It is noted that Khamenei has repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of Western governments, citing low turnout ranging from 30% to 40%.

The particular system of government in Iran

Iran’s theocratic regime is based on a parallel system of government in which elected bodies are overseen by appointed councils. The main state policies concerning the nuclear program, military and foreign affairs are decided by Ayatollah Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council, while the Revolutionary Guards mainly manage economic and political matters.

The role of the president is more limited to domestic politics and economic matters, but it is still an influential position.

Elections are also a factor indicative of public sentiment. The low turnout in recent years is widely interpreted as discontent with the clergy and a political establishment that is becoming increasingly hard-line and conservative.

Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the most likely scenario is that Khamenei rejects widening the electoral battle as the election of a new president seeks to signal a smooth and stable transition.

The role of Ayatollah Khamenei

However, Khamenei has equally strong reasons for opening the electoral race to moderates. Under Raisi, the country has faced a series of upheavals, with the economy slipping and unemployment soaring while the violent crackdown on anti-government protests that erupted in 2021 following the death of Mahsa Amini has angered large sections of the population.

In all of Iran’s recent elections, Khamenei has killed any reformist or even moderate candidate who was an opposition voice. The results confirmed the fears of the Iranian establishment: In 2021, Raisi won the presidential election with the lowest turnout, with 48%. By contrast, more than 70% of Iran’s 56 million voters participated in the electoral process when President Hassan Rouhani was elected in 2017.

So far, there is no indication that Iran’s political establishment can reverse this prediction.