London, Thanasis Gavos

MPs, political editors and political watchers in the UK have been expecting a quiet summer, with Euro football, the Olympics and Taylor Swift’s much-hyped Wembley concerts.

All this until yesterday afternoon.

Rumors ran high on Wednesday morning, with rare positive news from the Sunak government, inflation falling to 2.3%, a nearly three-year low and very close to the 2% target. Then came an unusual for a Wednesday cabinet meeting, the briefing on the hasty return of Foreign Secretary Cameron from Tirana, the delayed departure of Defense Minister Shapps for Vilnius.

Finally, shortly before 4pm former BBC journalist Emily Maitlis, who had exposed Prince Andrew in the now infamous interview about his relationship with Epstein, “called” the July 4th election, citing three different sources.

An hour and a half later, a rain-soaked Rishi Sunak was outside Number 10 Downing Street confirming the surprise decision: the king had already granted his request for a dissolution of Parliament and a summer election.

Mr Sunak has long said the election would be held “in the second half of the year”, with the government’s five-year term ending in January. And he, however, like the vast majority of parliamentarians and political commentators considered the second half of October or November as the most likely period to set up the ballot box.

So what changed?

In his speech, in a short video shortly after and in morning interviews on Thursday, Mr. Sunak pointed out that “economic stability has been restored” and that citizens are starting to feel the positive difference.

Undoubtedly, his desire to capitalize as much as possible on the positive news from the inflation front played a role in the decision. The Daily Telegraph comments that the “bet” made by Sunak is that in the next six weeks the citizens will feel a euphoria that they have missed returning to the country after a long time.

At a second level of analysis, however, many commentators point out that data on the widening budget deficit combined with announcements of large defense spending and compensation for the tens of thousands of victims of the tainted blood transfusion scandal have changed the picture in terms of Mr Sunak’s intention in September to push ahead with major tax cuts – which he hoped would give him a boost ahead of October/November.

Several also note that with six weeks until the election, Mr Sunak will be able to point to the new law he passed to deport illegal immigrants in Rwanda – before problems with the implementation of the controversial measure become apparent.

Another factor that influenced the outgoing prime minister’s decision may have been internal party disputes. Things may have calmed down a bit compared to early May, but the Conservative Party has become harder to control than Mr Sunak, particularly on the right wing. In addition, more than 65 of its MPs have announced that they will not seek re-election, adding to the general feeling of “the last days of the empire”.

Finally, the prime minister reportedly took into account the element of surprise. However, despite being the director of yesterday’s choreography, things from an image perspective did not turn out as he imagined.

He made his momentous announcement drenched to the bone, with scathing comments inevitable (“he did it wet again”, “prime minister in a storm”), while an additional part of his speech was not heard clearly because an anti-government activist was playing background music on the road outside Downing Street – not just any music, but Tony Blair’s 1997 Labor election campaign anthem.

By contrast, in his response shortly afterwards Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer appeared more prepared than the prime minister, speaking in a closed wood-panelled room with two British flags behind him, the lectern spelling out the word that will be the party’s central slogan. in this pre-election period: “change”.

Mr. Starmer is according to all predictions and opinion polls the most likely next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, the first Labor after 14 years of Conservative government (Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak).

The average of the polls over the last few months gives Labor a 21 percentage point lead over the Tories (44% to 23% respectively).

Mr. Sunak’s move was therefore described by most headlines as a “high risk” move. The Guardian characteristically speaks of a “spectacular risk”, as it is the first time a government with such a big disadvantage in the polls has called an election earlier than it could have done.

In an unsuspecting time, however, Rishi Sunak has essentially admitted that his goal in the upcoming elections will not be to win, but to prevent Labor from becoming independent.

But self-reliance for Sir Kiir seems the most likely outcome in today’s circumstances. For bookmakers the day after the election is called, the Conservatives are most likely to lose more than 200 seats from the 365 they won in December 2019 (and now with expulsions and exits after scandals are down to 344).

One factor that Mr Sunak is already trying to capitalize on is that Sir Keir Starmer is not particularly popular among Britons, as he is seen as lacking in leadership and easily changing policies.

The Tory leader is also worried about the rise in the polls of the far-right Reform UK party, founded with the support of Nigel Farage. According to Britain’s political and electoral analysis guru Professor John Curtis, one in five Conservative voters in 2019 will vote for Reform UK in six weeks.

In his speech Rishi Sunak said that he will fight for every vote and already his campaign tour across the state started at 6 am on Thursday. As Professor Curtis comments in his article in the Times, in order to change something, Mr. Sunak will have to prove unexpectedly good in the election campaigns.

In the first comments of political analysts it is noted that the key issues in the election campaign will be the accuracy and state of the national health system NHS, as well as immigration and the international security and defense situation.