Until now, the local government elections in Thuringia have been the domain of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU). But maybe things will turn out differently in today’s elections for the nomination of 13 regional governors, 94 mayors and community leaders and municipal councils. The goal of the CDU is to regain the premiership of the East German state held by Bodo Ramelo from the Left party (Die Linke) since March 2014, which will be decided in the local elections that will be held next September. Notably, Ramelo is also the first local state prime minister from this party.

But the problem is the far-right party Alternative for Germany AfD with Bjorn Hecke, head of K.O in the local parliament, hugely influential in the party, heavy record in the Constitutional Protection Agency for anti-Semitic, neo-Nazi and fascist views and expressions. Heke was recently fined by a court for using a Nazi SS slogan. The latest polls show the party at 30%, with the Christian Democrats second at 20%.

Predictions are difficult

Andre Brodoch, a political scientist in Erfurt, sees the local elections, in which more than 1.7 million Thuringian residents take part, as a barometer. “Their result can mobilize, but also disorient the parties, and this should not be underestimated in view of the local elections in about three months,” he points out. „It should also be taken into account that winning parties are more attractive to many voters than losing parties. In addition, if the AfD increases its percentages in connection with the 2018 and 2019 municipal elections in Thuringia, it could say that the citizens trust it to the last ounce of Thuringia.” Nevertheless, no one dares to make predictions, because the conditions at the regional level, the issues, but also the personalities of the candidates are very different.The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Left Party, the Liberals also have good chances to elect mayors or governors. After all, the AfD won its first regional governor in Germany 2023 in Sonenberg, Thuringia, but this was followed by defeats in the districts of Nordhausen and Saale-Orla, where an independent candidate and a Christian Democrat won.

Brodoch believes that Hecke’s conviction for using a Nazi slogan in a speech will not affect the voters’ decision for or against the AfD. The AfD has apparently managed to build ties in recent years. “Some voters in the party seem to have become immune to such incidents,” he says. In local election polls, the AfD has lost only slightly in recent months and is currently at 30%, the CDU at 20% and the Left at 16%. The German political scientist believes that much is at stake for the Christian Democratic Party of Thuringia in today’s local elections.

The Christian Democrats hope

In the 2018 elections for regional governors and mayors, it was the strongest party, as six years earlier, with about half of all regional governors and 37.9% of the vote. Some of their officials at the self-governing level, such as in Eichsfeld in Thuringia, a deeply Catholic region, are no longer candidates because of age. “The CDU needs a good result in the local governments ahead of the state elections,” the political scientist emphasizes. Mario Vogt, head of the K.O. of the Christian Democrats in the local parliament of Thuringia, referred to the election results earlier this year, where the Christian Democrat Christian Hergott, in the Saale-Orla region, managed to prevail in the second round, while the AfD candidate was ahead in polls. “We have shown that we can prevail with the so-called alternative solution” he constantly encourages his party’s followers and bets on the feelings of the residents for their state. “We are the only party that has fielded candidates for every office in these local elections,” Vogt explains.

Something the AfD has not managed to do. In three regions there are no party candidates on the ballot, while in Weimar the party is not proposing a mayoral candidate. The CDU fields twice as many candidates, while the Left Party, the SPD and the Greens also have more candidates than the AfD.

In the district of Saalfeld-Rudollstan, the creation of a list of AfD candidates ended in a split. After internal party quarrels, two competing lists are now being published. The local CDU and AfD have already raised the possibility of contesting the election result. The issue caused a sensation across Germany with local AfD politicians calling for Hecke’s resignation. The candidacy of a far-right extremist as regional governor in Hildburghausen in southern Thuringia caused great skepticism. The electoral commission there had approved the candidate, even though he is considered a central figure in the far-right scene in Thuringia. It is expected that in many cases there will be no final result tonight and a second round will have to be held. On June 9, together with the European elections.