After months of tensions with Western powers, Russia attacked Ukraine on Thursday, kicking off the most serious military crisis in Europe since World War II.
Understand what caused the conflict and what the situation has been so far.
Which way did Russia and Ukraine go until this Thursday’s attack (24)?
In early November, Putin deployed more than 100,000 troops and equipment to areas relatively close to Ukraine. For months, Ukraine, the US and NATO have accused the Russian president of planning a military invasion, which he has denied. The Russian said, however, that he could take military action if the Western military alliance did not back down and if it did not formally veto Ukraine from joining the club, which the US considered unacceptable.
After months of tension, Putin on Monday decided to recognize the independence of two separatist areas in Ukrainian territory, Lugansk and Donetsk, with an ethnic Russian majority – the Kremlin says there are 800,000 people with Russian citizenship in the region.
The recognition of the independence of the Ukrainian provinces, in addition to a harsh speech against the government in Kiev, was seen as the final step for the nations to go to war.
In reaction, the European Union and the United States announced a series of sanctions on Russian authorities and companies. At first, Putin said he was willing to negotiate a diplomatic solution as long as his country’s “interests and security” were respected.
Despite the speech, the Kremlin did not allow time for a negotiated solution. At around 5 am on Thursday, local time, the Russian went on TV to say he would carry out a “special military operation” in the Donbass, the area with an ethnic Russian majority.
The speech was read as a declaration of war, particularly as Putin said he wanted to bring to justice those who committed what he called “genocide” and “crimes” against Russians in the areas, as well as “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine.
Minutes later, Russian troops advanced on Ukrainian territory and, since then, the neighboring country has been under attack on different fronts.
What does Putin mean by “denazifying” the country?
Russia has accused Kiev of links to neo-Nazi groups – elements of the Armed Forces, such as the Battalion of Azov, are accused of using symbols such as the swastika and Nazi salutes. The Germans fought the Soviets for control of Ukraine in World War II.
President Volodomyr Zelensky, however, is Jewish and often remembers this when commenting on the Russian accusations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said he suggested overthrowing the government to fulfill the goal of “denazifying” the country: “Ideally, you liberate Ukraine and get rid of the Nazis. The future belongs to the Ukrainian people,” he said. .
How were the relations between Kiev and moscow so far?
Once seen as a sort of Russian satellite, Ukraine has been at odds with Russia since 2014, when a pro-Moscow government in Kiev was toppled after mass protests. Putin realized that NATO and the European Union could absorb the neighbor and acted, promoting the annexation of Crimea, an ethnic Russian territory that had been ceded to Ukraine in Soviet times, in 1954.
In addition, it fueled a civil war of pro-Kremlin separatists in the Donbass region, which is at the center of the confusion now.
How is the situation in Crimea today?
Only eight Kremlin-allied countries recognize the peninsula as Russian territory. All the rest of the international community, including the official position of the UN, is that the region is Ukrainian territory. Despite this, the annexation is seen as a fait accompli in the diplomatic community.
What does Putin really want?
The Russian president’s priority is to prevent Ukraine, or any other ex-Soviet country, from joining NATO and, secondarily, the European Union. Historically, the Russians have their most vulnerable flank in Eastern Europe. Therefore, both the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union either dominated or had allies in the region.
The Soviet decline meant that part of these countries was absorbed into the western sphere and, in 2004, the expansion of NATO reached three republics that belonged to the USSR: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. That was the last straw for Putin.
Is this the first time Putin reacts?
No. The current conflict resembles the 2008 war in Georgia, a small country in the Caucasus, one of the historic routes of invasions and wars. Like Ukraine, Georgia had two ethnically Russian-majority areas, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A mix of Russian pressure and the voluntarism of then-President Mikheil Saakashvili set his country on a collision course with Moscow. He had an aggressive attitude and was seen as reckless in provoking the Russians, giving them the excuse to attack on behalf of the ethnic minority that populate both areas of the country. The result was intervention by the Russians, who had mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers for a nearby military exercise. Today Georgia does not control 20% of its territory, which in practice prevents it from joining NATO.
Why didn’t Ukraine join NATO and the EU?
For the same reason as Georgia: club rules do not allow countries with active territorial conflicts. This makes Western discourse convenient, as no one wants to pay to see a direct confrontation with Russia. Thus, Kiev receives support and some weaponry from NATO, but no ground troops are expected to defend it.
What are the reactions so far?
So far, Western countries have not sent military troops to support the Ukrainian army.
On Wednesday (23), the European Union announced an initial package of sanctions against the 351 members of the Duma (Russian lower house of Parliament) that endorsed the recognition of Ukrainian breakaway areas. They are banned from traveling to EU countries and have had EU assets frozen.
The retaliation package also affects 27 entities and individuals who, according to a statement from the EU, participated “in the threat to the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine”. In this group are members of the government; banks and executives who provided financial and material support to operations in the breakaway regions; and military officials and individuals “responsible for leading the disinformation war against Ukraine”.
A day earlier, the United States blocked the Russian government from making financial transactions involving its debt securities with US and European companies. There were also sanctions against five members of the Russian elite and their families, for being related to corruption allegations and having benefited from relations with the Kremlin, according to the Biden administration.
In addition to the sanctions decided in bloc, Germany reacted individually, by freezing the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which connects Russia to the European country and is ready, but unable to operate due to the crisis in Ukraine. US President Joe Biden also announced sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, the company responsible for the pipeline, and its directors.
Nord Stream 2 is the second branch of a mega-project started in the 2000s. It doubles the capacity to transport natural gas across the Baltic Sea, enabling Russia to divert supplies that today are mostly made through Ukraine and the turbulent allied dictatorship Belarus. .
Do sanctions have a concrete effect?
European bloc sanctions against Moscow began to be imposed in 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea. Gradually, the list of measures grew, with biannual renewals, and began to include diplomatic vetoes (such as the expulsion of the G8) and individual or targeted retaliation against entire companies and economic sectors.
On the one hand, analysts agree that the 2014 package did not achieve its main objectives, such as complying with the Minsk Accords, signed between 2014 and 2015, a ceasefire that was never respected by the parties – it is estimated that 14,000 people died in the civil war.
On the other hand, they reaffirm that the instrument remains the one with the most potential for effectiveness, from the West’s point of view, in preventing a military conflict — especially if, as this week, it is implemented with speed, by a relevant group and with consequences each time. increasingly severe.
What are the economic impacts of the war?
The price of oil topped $100 for the first time in more than seven years. Russia is one of the major oil producers, and a military conflict affects the oil market. In addition, sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union can also put pressure on the price of energy, directly and indirectly. If the war brings the Euro-Russian fuel trade to a halt, Europeans will have to look elsewhere for energy, in a world market that will become even tighter and more expensive.
There may also be an impact on food prices. Ukraine sells 17% of the world’s corn, a relevant weight, although it lags behind the USA, Brazil and Argentina. Ukraine and Russia export 30% of the wheat purchased by the rest of the planet.
Whenever there is a serious political crisis, riskier securities such as equities are affected. After the invasion was announced, global equities and even US Treasury bonds plummeted, while dollar, gold and oil prices soared after Russian troops launched an attack on Ukraine.
Investors’ search for global security boosted the dollar, which rose more than 0.5% against the basket of currencies of its main trading partners. The euro, in turn, fell 0.8%.
