Under pressure from the families of Israeli hostages to strike a deal with Hamas and under threat of a break with his far-right government allies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again has his back against the wall and his political survival, and Mr. concern, is in danger. But nothing has been done for the politician who has survived a series of crises, analysts warn.

Under pressure for a deal

On Saturday, thousands of Israelis demonstrated to demand from the Netanyahu government a deal that would allow the release of the hostages.

A day earlier, US President Joe Biden had added to the domestic pressure by announcing that Israel has proposed a three-stage plan to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire, a plan that includes the gradual release of hostages held in Gaza.

Hamas announced that it was favorable to the Israeli plan, without giving an official response.

Taken aback by Washington, Netanyahu was quick to stress that the “conditions” for reaching a truce deal have not changed and include the “destruction” of Hamas.

According to Gideon Rahat, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Benjamin Netanyahu is likely not to follow through “because he is only interested in his political survival.”

The 74-year-old embattled prime minister owes his stay in power only to the support of three Israeli far-right factions that are threatening to leave the government if there is an agreement on the plan presented by Biden.

But will the extreme right abandon Netanyahu?

Will Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the two key far-right ministers, carry out their threats?

Everything depends on the content of the agreement that will be adopted by Israel and Hamas, according to political scientist Ilan Greilsammer.

“If the ‘deal’ is to stop the war immediately and withdraw the army, it will be difficult to think that they will remain in government. But if there is an interim agreement, maybe they will stay,” says the professor at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv.

For Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel’s Open University, there is a “strong chance” the far-right will abandon ship.

Without the far right, what will be the future of the Netanyahu government?

If the far right leaves the coalition with Netanyahu, “the government collapses,” says Ilan Greilsammer.

“Unless there is a lightning strike between Netanyahu and the centrists Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz to form a new coalition,” he says.

Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition, has announced that he is ready to join a government under Netanyahu if the far-right withdraws, if that allows a deal to be reached on the release of the hostages.

Netanyahu prefers to stick with his far-right partners

“I don’t think so, because Netanyahu prefers to stay with his allies on the right. Well, it’s unlikely. I’m just saying it’s possible,” says Gideon Rahat.

Another key Israeli political figure trying to influence the situation is Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist National Unity party, who has been serving as a minister without portfolio in the Netanyahu government and Israel’s war council since the October 7 attacks. .

Benny Gantz recently threatened to quit the government if there is no “action plan”, notably on post-war Gaza. His party last week tabled a bill to dissolve Parliament.

However, as long as the extreme right supports Netanyahu, this proposal will remain a dead letter, remind professors Rahat and Greilsammer.

And it is more likely that “Netanyahu will retain power,” says Rahat, potentially heading a minority government if the far-right pulls out.

What is the political continuity?

In case of early elections, the coalition government will be formed by the centrist forces and Benny Gantz will be the most suitable to lead the government, political analysts say based on the results of opinion polls.

“Gandz has been losing big lately in the polls because he’s seen as too soft, too hesitant, too conciliatory toward Netanyahu,” says Ilan Greilsammer.

In a poll broadcast by the state-run Khan channel, 38% of respondents consider Benny Gantz, former chief of the general staff of the Israeli army, former defense minister, to be the most suitable for prime minister, compared to 30% who consider Netanyahu suitable for prime minister . However, the gap between the two men has widened to 8 from 21 percentage points in January.

Netanyahu is playing the card that says “he is the one who can prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, because a Palestinian state at our door means October 7 every day”, predicts Denis Charbit. “For that matter, many voters who loathe Netanyahu are capable of voting for him.”