The far-right National Rally would take first place if it were held today elections in France, but without an absolute majority, according to the first opinion poll published on Monday after President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament.

Her far-right party Marine Le Pen , RN, would win 235 to 265 seats in the National Assembly, up significantly from the 88 it currently holds. However, the number falls short of the 289 required for an absolute majority, according to the survey by Toluna Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6 and RTL.

Macron’s centrist coalition would cut its number of seats in half, from 250 to 125-155, the poll showed. Left parties could jointly win 115 to 145 seats.

There is no certainty that the National Coalition would form a government, with or without an alliance with others. Other scenarios include a broad coalition of dominant parties.

Even if the RN wins a majority in the French parliament, Macron will remain president for another three years and remain in charge of defense and foreign policy.

But he would lose control of the domestic agenda, including economic policy, security, immigration and finance, which in turn had implications for other policies, such as aid to Ukraine, as he needed the support of parliament to to finance the aid of France’s budget.

“We are still in shock,” Emmanuel Pellerin, a lawmaker from Macron’s Renaissance party, told Reuters. “Everything points to the RN winning a relative or absolute majority. But this forces the French to think about what is at stake.”

In this context, political parties are struggling to select candidates and discuss possible alliances.

Far-right alliance

RN leaders Jordan Bardela and Le Pen held talks on Monday with Marion Marechal of the smaller far-right Reconquete party. Marechal was Le Pen’s niece and a member of her party before they fell out.

Bardella said after the meeting that talks are underway to create an alliance. He added that he was also talking to some members of the conservative Le Republicains.

“I fervently hope that we can find ways for us all to come together,” Marechal told reporters.

The leaders of the French left, the hard left LFI (France Unbowed), Communists, Socialists and Greens – also held talks.

“We don’t have time to procrastinate,” LFI’s Manon Aubry told reporters. “The goal is to be able to meet again, build the future and above all go and win.”

A source close to Macron said the 46-year-old leader, whose power has waned since losing an absolute majority in parliament two years ago, if there was a chance he could surprise everyone by winning back the majority.

For Le Pen and Bardela, the challenge is to turn popularity into victory. The vote is likely to turn not only on discontent over Macron’s power, cost of living and immigration policies, but also on whether the RN can win the confidence to lead a major European government.

Among the policies proposed by the RN are higher fiscal spending, despite higher French debt, increasing funding costs for banks.

The RN also wants to deport more migrants, stop family reunification, cut childcare benefits for French citizens, prioritize the French in accessing social housing and jobs and withdraw residency for long-term unemployed migrants. from one year.