A party which was only created in 2018 by a controversial British political figure. The reason for the right-wing Reform UK, which presents itself as a populist party refusing the “far-right” label.

So is its leader, Nigel Farage, who has occupied the British political scene for almost three decades and is often in the media mainly because of his outspoken stance on political issues such as immigration. It is no coincidence that his voice played a decisive role in the Brexit vote, while he created the party with the aim of implementing it and cutting any ties with the EU, which, according to him, are holding the country back.

Characteristic of the opinion held by several citizens of the country about the 60-year-old politician are the attacks he has received in less than 10 days, after the announcement of his candidacy for the country’s national elections. So far a girlfriend has attacked him by throwing a milkshake at his head while campaigning in Essex, while a young man has had objects such as thick cement thrown at him. All these incidents could mean possible failure in the upcoming elections. But the trend of the electorate shows that it is moving in completely different paths.

“We are the real official opposition”

According to a poll by YouGov, one of the country’s biggest polling firms, Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not only not far behind in the public’s favour, but late on Thursday night they were in second place with 19%, leaving them third the ruling Conservative party with 18%.

The political earthquake was intense. This poll may have been the only one to show populist Reform UK in second place, as nearly 10 others put it in fourth place, but the trend is the same for all: an increase of around 4% since the start of its election campaign.

The statements were direct. Nigel Farage on the X platform and also in his television appearances emphasized “now we are the official opposition of the Labor party”. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak commented from Italy while at the G7 Summit that “a vote for Farage is a blank check for Labour”. Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron was clearer. In an interview with The Times, he described the 60-year-old politician as a “populist” while stressing that his “inflammatory language” should be rejected.

Will he win seats in the British Parliament?

British analysts are trying to decode this trend. According to most, it still remains open whether Reform UK will manage to secure even one seat in the House of Commons, despite the possible consolidation of votes across the country.

The reason is the country’s “First past the post system” electoral system, which is applied to the country’s 650 different electoral districts. According to this, the result of the elections is not based on the percentage of votes but solely on the prevalence of each candidate in the respective electoral district, which is later translated into a seat.

In short, Nigel Farage may have many supporters scattered across the country, but the scenario of none of his candidates securing a seat is likely. It remains to be seen what will happen in less than three weeks, when the national elections of Great Britain are held and what the people will decide at the ballot box.