New presidential and parliamentary elections have been called in Libya for December 24. The international community is meeting in Paris on Friday to give “the last support that is deemed necessary” in the run-up to the elections, as French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said a few days ago. The meeting takes place with a new composition, which reflects some changes in the balance of power: for the first time Greece and Cyprus are participating in an international conference on Libya, while Turkey is not participating, which does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus. Algeria also downgraded its participation and announced on Wednesday that it was not President Abdelmandjid Teboun who was present, but Foreign Minister Ramdan Lamara. It was preceded by diplomatic frictions between France and Algeria over remarks by President Emanuel Macron about the colonial era.
During a recent visit to Tripoli, Lendrian stressed that the Paris conference was crucial to ending “outside interventions” in Libya and the withdrawal of foreign troops and foreign mercenaries. Can France succeed as a mediator at a critical time for developments in Libya? “Yes, but…,” said Asma Khalifa, a political scientist and researcher at the Hamburg-based Leibniz Institute for International and Regional Studies (GIGA). “I think Paris has its own agenda and is pursuing its own interests in the run-up to the December elections,” said Asma Khalifa. “This probably does not give credibility to the role of the sincere mediator he seeks. “Beyond that, it is undeniable that France plays a central role in shaping European policy on Africa.”
France is on Haftar’s side
From the beginning of the armed conflict in Libya, France had openly sided with General Haftar, who was also supported by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. For Paris, Haftar was an ideal ally in the fight against Islamist terrorism, not only in Libya itself, but also in the Sahel, sub-Saharan Africa. (As a former colonial power, France dominated the Sahel, but in the summer of 2022 is expected to end military operations against Islamist organizations in the region). In addition, Haftar could respond to a future French request for the development of oil fields in the eastern provinces of Libya.
How fragile the balance is in Libya was also shown by the sudden removal of Foreign Minister Nila Al Mangu, who is accused of “administrative violations”. Details are not known. For analyst Asma Khalifa, all this shows that “a war of interests is underway between individuals or organized groups in order to secure as much influence as possible, but also to weaken potential opponents. The question, in the first phase, is to take a position in view of the elections of December “. The scenarios for possible participation in the elections and the current, interim Libyan Prime Minister Abdullah Hamid Dbeiba, who supports the disputed Turkey-Libya agreement on the EEZ, are causing concern. “There is no provision for a caretaker prime minister to run in the election,” said Asma Khalifa. “Such a development would violate the agreements.”
“Abstention” from Germany in NATO
Outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel will also chair the international conference on Libya. Earlier, Germany convened a summit on Libya, and in early October, Angela Merkel welcomed interim President Mohamed Minfi to Berlin, stressing the importance of the upcoming elections and the withdrawal of foreign troops from Libya.
In recent statements, the outgoing chancellor recalled that from the beginning she had expressed reservations about outside interventions in Libya. “When the vote on NATO military intervention took place, Germany abstained,” said Angela Merkel. “I was strongly criticized for that at that time. But I was worried about what would come after Gaddafi, I thought it would not be better and indeed it seems that the international community is facing a huge problem. Neighboring countries, especially those in southern Libya, are now suffering the consequences. “Weapons and paramilitary groups are circulating everywhere and there is a clear tendency to destabilize.”
DW – Kersten Knip / Giannis Papadimitriou
.
