Jordan Bardela, the 28-year-old head of the National Rally, promised during the campaign to reduce France’s contribution to the EU budget by “2 to 3 billion euros”.

However, Bardella’s promise lacks truth. The EU’s multiannual budget is agreed after tough negotiations that require unanimity among EU countries. The next EU budget will come into force in 2028.

The French far-right has learned from Thatcher’s book, Politico reports. Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher secured the UK’s first fiscal “return” in the 1980s, a point of contention among Eurosceptic leaders.

What is a rebate?

It refers to the amount a country contributes to the EU budget. Contributions to the bloc’s multiannual budget are based on each country’s gross national income (GNI). If one country achieves a ‘return’ – and it is not a common occurrence – the other 26 governments must match it by contributing higher payments.

Do the EU treaties provide for it?

The answer is negative. It was originally an informal agreement between Thatcher and other EU leaders at the Fontainebleau summit in 1984. Since then, fiscally conservative countries including the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany have secured similar treatment in subsequent budget negotiations.

Could Bardella achieve a lesser contribution?

It would be a difficult task for France. The few countries that achieved “returns” in the past were able to argue that even by objective criteria their payments to the EU were too large. But France already benefits greatly from the EU budget, with its agricultural sector worth tens of billions of euros.

The “return” is justified on the grounds that a country’s “contribution to the EU is excessive and contributes much more money to the budget than it receives,” said Eulalia Rubio of the Jacques Delors Institute.

“I don’t think there is a consensus that France deserves a ‘return’ of money, Rubio added, as it receives significant amounts from the EU in the form of agricultural subsidies and funding to poorer regions.”

When could he raise the issue

It is unlikely to achieve much in the short term. There is no provision for redistributing money in the current budget, while the new one will take effect in 2028 when France has a new president. Besides, EU countries will probably have to contribute more money to the EU to pay for additional defense and green spending.

The “return” requirement could put France “in a weaker position in budget negotiations” as other countries may back a cut in widely unpopular farm subsidies, analysts say.

Why do Bardella’s comments matter?

The far-right politician is seen as the likely prime minister if his party wins a majority in the July 7 election. And, as the bloc’s second-largest economy, France wields influence in the EU.

France has traditionally been in favor of the EU having more money rather than less. However, even if it does not achieve a “return”, a victory by the National Rally will in any case overturn the broader debate on the bloc’s budget.