The first round of France’s crucial election has concluded, confirming polls and the fears of those who predicted it would bring the far right closer to power for the first time since World War II.

The main conclusions:

  • The National Rally is stronger than ever

Estimates show Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) with 33.5% of the vote, ahead of the leftist alliance with 28.1% and Macron’s coalition with 20.7%. The National Coalition has improved its already high percentages in the European elections and the conquest of an absolute majority next week is now possible.

  • The presidential camp suffered a blow

The biggest losers of the night appear to be French President Emmanuel Macron and his allies. The centrist coalition is trailing behind both of its rivals and will likely lose dozens of the 250 seats it currently holds in the National Assembly.

  • All eyes are on the directions given by the party leaders

The big question now is whether voters will obey the directions given by the parties to upvote the candidate of each district entering the second round against that of the National Rally. Three candidates made it to the second round in hundreds of constituencies. The leftist alliance has already said it will ask its third-placed candidates to withdraw. While the centrist coalition has yet to give clear instructions, its decision will strongly influence next week’s vote.

To win one of the 577 seats in the national assembly in the first round, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote, representing at least 25% of registered voters.

If no candidate in a constituency succeeds, the top two vote-getting candidates plus anyone else who received at least 12.5% ​​of all registered voters advance to a runoff. In the second round, the candidate who will collect the most votes is elected.

The situation is extremely uncertain and will remain fluid until the candidates who will contest the second round become clear.

According to estimates by the Ipsos company, the number of MPs elected from the first round of parliamentary elections in France, i.e. who gather more than 50% of the voters, will be between 65 and 85. Also, according to the same company, the constituencies in which three candidates qualify will be between 285 and 315 out of a total of 577 single-seat districts.

In the 2022 elections where abstention was over 50% in only five constituencies three candidates qualified. In today’s parliamentary elections, where the abstention was around 30%, the constituencies where three candidates qualify are extremely numerous.

Marine Le Pen’s National Alarm will be present in 390 to 430 districts, the left’s Popular Front will be present in 370 to 410 districts and Macron’s faction will be present in 290 to 330 districts, according to Ipsos.

Le Pen wins with 34%, the left coalition is second, the Macron alliance is in third place

The first official exit polls show a victory for the National Rally with a percentage of 34%, second comes the New People’s Front of the left with a percentage of 28.1%, while in third place with a percentage of 20.3% is the Macron Ensemble alliance. This is the first assessment by IFOP, Ipsos, OpinionWay and Elabe.

The first estimate for the distribution of seats:

  • National Coalition (Le Pen): 34% and 260-310 seats
  • New Popular Front (Melançon): 28.1% and 115-145 seats
  • Renaissance (Macron): 20.3% and 90-120 seats
  • Republicans: 10.2% and 30-50 seats

Macron calls for coalition against far-right in second round

Immediately after the publication of the estimates of the results, the French president Emmanuel Macron urged voters to block the far-right in the run-off election on July 7. To do so, he called for a “broad” alliance between “Republican and Democratic” candidates.

In a statement to AFP, Macron said he believed the high turnout showed the French’s desire to “clarify the political situation”.

According to an estimate by the French polling institute Ipsos Talan, the far-right National Rally is estimated to win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. The second largest group is predicted to be the left-wing New Popular Front, with 125 to 165 seats, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance is expected to win 70 to 100 seats.

Le Pen asked for an absolute majority

The “Macron camp” has “practically disappeared,” celebrated Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Alarm RN party, which won first place in the first round of French parliamentary elections, far ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s camp.

“Democracy has spoken,” said Marine Le Pen, who announced she had been re-elected in the first round. The president of the National Rally said the RN’s victory demonstrated that voters “clearly showed their desire to turn the page after seven years of corrosive power of Emmanuel Macron”.

“Nothing is won and the second round will be decisive, so that the country does not fall into the hands of the Nupes coalition, an extreme left with a violent tendency”, he warned, while also stressing that the second round will be “decisive to give Bardelas the absolute majority in the National Assembly so that the recovery of France and the restoration of unity can begin next week.

“We need an absolute majority to appoint Jordan Bardela as prime minister from Emmanuel Macron in eight days,” he added.

Melanchon called for a front against the National Rally

It is also clear the position that Mélenchon will take in the second round, who announced that he will withdraw the candidates where a National Rally candidate is to be elected.

In particular, a few minutes after the results were announced, Jean-Luc Mélenchon said that the only option would be above all a duel between “the New Popular Front or the RN”. In the event that a left-wing candidate came third and the candidate of the National Rally is first “we will withdraw our candidate. Not one vote, not one more seat for the RN. Our instructions are clear, our instructions are simple,” Melanchon added.

“Each of us must take a stand, get involved and convince those around us. Democracy is at stake,” he stressed.

Raphael Gluskman’s Place Publique party, which is part of the New People’s Front (NFP), is asking all the parties that came in third place to withdraw from the electoral battle in the second round of the parliamentary elections. “History looks at us and judges us,” he says in a statement, calling on voters to vote against the candidates of the National Rally.