Dozens of people have been killed in anti-Turkish protests in the Afrin region on Syria’s border with Turkey. The demonstrators, according to their own statements, wanted to express their solidarity with their compatriots who are refugees in Turkey. Earlier in the central Anatolian city of Kayseri (Caesarea) an angry mob had vandalized shops and vehicles of Syrian refugees, shouting slogans calling for their expulsion.

The crowd’s anger was directed against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Syria policy. “Resign, Erdogan,” the protesters chanted – showing their disapproval of the Turkish president’s long-standing open-door policy on Syrian refugees. A total of about three and a half million people from Syria live in Turkey. Erdogan himself criticized the riots in Kayseri as “unacceptable”. According to media reports, around 470 people were arrested there. Protests and outbreaks of violence are blocking the planned rapprochement between the Turkish and Syrian governments. Only recently have the rulers of both countries made it clear that they wish to reorganize their relationship, which has been poisoned for many years.

Ankara had already frozen relations since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. In the conflict, Erdogan primarily supported jihadist groups fighting the Syrian regime. The relationship between the two states worsened further because Turkey took control of parts of northeastern Syria during the Syrian civil war. There he is fighting the Kurdish forces, which Ankara characterizes as terrorists.

But now a new wind seems to be blowing. Erdogan said on June 28 that there are no obstacles to the resumption of diplomatic relations with Syria. Shortly before, President Bashar al-Assad had also stated that he wanted to revive relations with Turkey.

Erdogan’s interests

There is a lot at stake for both countries. The government in Ankara is under enormous pressure because of the Syrian refugees living in Turkey. The mood towards them has deteriorated massively in recent years. Erdogan wants to prevent more Syrians from entering Turkey, says Andre Bank, an expert on Syria and Turkey at the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg. “He also wants to ensure that as many Syrians as possible leave Turkey again.” If he succeeds in concluding a repatriation deal, it would be a major domestic political success for Erdogan.

Turkey also has its sights set on northeastern Syria. The Turkish military has been fighting there against the Kurdish YPG militia for years. It is believed to be closely linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which operates in Turkey and is listed as a terrorist organization there – as well as in the EU. A development in the northeast could be the real trigger for negotiations between Syria and Turkey that may soon take place, says Michael Bauer, head of the Konrad Andernauer Foundation (KAS) office in Lebanon. “The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Kurdish self-government, which is present in the region and is turning against Assad, recently said they wanted to hold local elections in the Kurdish-controlled areas,” Bauer explains. This possibility was particularly rejected in Turkey. “Due to international pressure, they have now been postponed until August.”

Objectives of the Syrian regime

Conversely, the Syrian regime also pursues specific goals through this approach. Basically, Assad wants to continue the normalization process with the Arab states, says Andre Bank. This began no later than May 2023, when Syria was readmitted to the Arab League as an active member. It also wants to continue this course in relation to its non-Arab neighbours. The regime wants to retake the Idlib region in the northwest of the country, which is currently controlled by the radical Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Since Turkey controls the northern part of Idlib, cooperation between the two states could be an option. This also applies to the areas controlled by the Kurds in the northeast. The Assad regime also wants to expand its presence there again. “An agreement with Turkey would be extremely helpful for this request,” Bank says.

The question now is what effect the unrest on both sides will have on the planned rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus. On the one hand, citizens are likely to oppose the rapprochement, since at least parts of the populations of both countries have expressed strong mutual antipathy. On the other hand, they could also accelerate the planned rapprochement, since cooperation could dampen the demands and motivations of the protesters, and both sides could “sell” this as a success domestically.

What may be worrying for Europeans is that, according to observers, the first steps towards a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement have already taken place behind the scenes – with Russian mediation. Russia is currently trying to expand its influence almost everywhere in the region. “We in the EU must be aware that Moscow will unconditionally pursue its own interests in Syria and the region,” warns KAS expert Michael Bauer – “particularly at the expense of Europe.”

Edited by: Kostas Argyros