Faced with the possibility of the extreme right having either a relative or an absolute parliamentary majority is France, where the second round of parliamentary elections is being held today.

Since the first round, where Marine Le Pen’s National Alarm came first with 32%, they have already elected 76 MPs, (out of 577 in total) who in their (unilateral) constituency received over 51% of the votes, while in the rest districts qualified to compete in the second round for the top two of each electoral district as well as the candidates who received more than 12.5% ​​of the votes. However, after the decision of the factions of President Emmanuel Macron and the left to withdraw from the contest at the beginning of the week their candidates who did not have a significant chance of being elected, in the vast majority of constituencies two candidates will compete today, where in most cases the one will be far right.

This development had the effect of significantly reducing, according to the latest opinion polls (which in the case of the second round of French parliamentary elections are always high risk) the chances of Marine Le Pen’s party having an absolute majority in the new National Assembly.

According to the latest Ipsos poll published in the newspaper Le Monde, the National Alarm and its allies could after the second round have between 175 and 205 seats, compared to the 89 they won in 2022. The New Popular Front of the parties of the Left and other left-wing candidates could gather between 145 and 175 seats, compared to the 150 they had, while the Macron “Together” faction appears to have a serious reduction in seats, which from the 245 seats it had in 2022 will fluctuate between 118 and 148 seats. Finally, the Republican party together with other right-wing candidates will have between 57 and 67 seats.

If these estimates are verified then the French president Emmanuel Macron will have to assess after the elections whether it is possible to form a government that will not be in danger of falling at any time after a motion of censure in favor of which the absolute majority of its members will stand National Assembly. The possibility of forming a “technical government” for at least a year is also open, taking into account that until the summer of 2025, it is not allowed, based on the French Constitution, for President Macron to call new parliamentary elections.