The opinion polls show a victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in the second round of the French elections. What does the predominance of the extreme right mean for governance in France and for President Macron? The most important questions and answers:

Who will be given the prime ministerial anointing?

If Le Pen’s National Rally secures a majority of seats in the French National Assembly, then President Emmanuel Macron must nominate RN President Jordan Bardela for the premiership.

According to Hans Stark from the Sorbonne University, there is no alternative for President Macron, since “he is politically weakened and does not have much scope”.

How does a “symbiosis” work?

Executive power in France is shared when the president and prime minister come from different political camps. The president and prime minister are obliged to work together in the framework of a policy of “coexistence” or “cohabitation” for the good of the country.

How successfully the country is governed in the context of a “coexistence” policy depends on how well the cooperation between the president and the prime minister is. However, the current Constitution of the Fifth Republic of 1958 does not expressly provide for such a “coexistence”.

What leeway does a government have in “coexistence”?

In a “symbiosis” the powers of the president are temporarily transferred to the prime minister. Consequently the political guidelines are drawn by the prime minister and not the president.

In domestic politics the government has the first say in the context of a “coexistence”. In foreign and security policy, the government and the president share powers, with the president in charge of foreign relations.

Will Macron-Bardella cooperate?

President Macron rejects at least part of the National Rally program. According to Hans Stark, the National Rally may try to “corner the president until he resigns.”

On the other hand, it is inconceivable that President Macron would try to completely “block” a government of the National Rally. Both Macron and Bardella will necessarily try to find a common denominator.

If the RN only has a simple majority?

The expert Hans Stark believes that Bardella will keep his promise and refuse the prime ministership if he wins the election, but without securing an absolute majority.

If no other political camp is able to secure a majority, then the French Republic is “blocked”. In this case, however, the president cannot proceed with the dissolution of the Parliament. The French Constitution provides for a waiting period of one year.

What exits does a “blocked” National Assembly have?

The parties have not yet answered the question of how they will react in the event that there is no majority in the National Assembly. It is known that Marine Le Pen prefers this possibility to a new appeal to the polls.

Macron, however, could not be forced to resign. There is no clear scenario in France for a “blocked democracy”. Much will depend post-election on political dynamics.

Among the possible scenarios is also a supra-party government of technocrats, for which there is no precedent in the French Fifth Republic.

Can the president dismantle a ‘blocked democracy’?

Emmanuel Macron could invoke Article 16 of the French constitution, which gives the president extraordinary powers in crisis situations, to ensure the continuity of the state.

The president could pass laws and issue decrees without the approval of the National Assembly. France expert Hans Stark, however, does not believe that Article 16 is a real option for Macron: “I cannot imagine until the end of Macron’s term a government by decree and France permanently in a state of crisis.”

Preliminary results have been announced in some overseas territories

In Guadeloupe, the left-wing New Popular Front MPs were re-elected with between 69 and 77.5% in the four constituencies, after facing mainly two National Front candidates who had managed to qualify in the second round.

In Martinique, all four constituencies went to New Popular Front candidates.

In French Guiana, the two outgoing candidates supported by the New People’s Front were re-elected, with Davy Rimane receiving 100% of the vote, unopposed.

Some results in overseas territories are not yet known, particularly in New Caledonia, Reunion and Mayotte, where elections are held today.