Next week is particularly critical for Ursula von der Leyen as members of the European Parliament are expected to vote on July 18 on whether the European Commission president deserves a second term. Except that the voting will be done in secret, which involves risks.

Ursula von der Leyen already has the support of the majority of national leaders. But to be able to continue being at the helm of the Commission, he needs the votes of 361 of the 720 MEPs.

If it fails and leaves EU national leaders will have to find an alternative.

So, according to Politico, von der Leyen and her team are making phone calls and meeting with as many MEPs as they can, often one-on-one, securing as many votes as possible.

“You have to negotiate and hope they keep their promise,” said one person close to von der Leyen, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “There is a big difference from last time. Now, the European Parliament knows, it already has personal relationships with many MEPs”.

But since the voting will be done in secret, nothing can be certain for von der Leyen since this process has its pros and cons.

“It’s a challenge,” said former Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, who twice (successfully) faced the secret ballot. “They are truly independent when they vote in secret.”

On the one hand, lawmakers can publicly claim to dislike her, but make secret deals with her. On the other hand, there is no way to ensure that lawmakers will keep their promises and vote for it.

To pass the threshold of 361 votes, von der Leyen is hoping for as much support as possible from the centrist groups that backed her last time – her own EPP, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew. All together they have a total of almost 400 seats.

The big question is what the MPs of Giorgia Meloni’s “Brothers of Italy” party will do. Meloni was absent when it came time for von der Leyen to vote in the EU Council. Also, von der Leyen has so far not yet met with the European Conservatives and Reformists.

But even within the centrist groups, there are some who have made it known publicly that they will not vote for von der Leyen even if they publicly support her. That is why voting is secret.

“The goal is for MEPs not to face pressure from their party or their group to vote as they want. The idea is that this strengthens the autonomy of their parliamentary mandate,” he said.

But the pressure from government leaders and leaders of parties and representative groups continues to exist.

However, von der Leyen is taking a risk. She is skipping the NATO summit in Washington this week to focus “on her work to build a majority for a strong Europe in the European Parliament,” said Eric Mummer, the European Commission’s chief spokesman.

But even if hands are shaken and deals are struck, MEPs can choose to vote against von der Leyen without anyone knowing. That weakens a possible second term for von der Leyen, an EU official said. Von der Leyen must exert all her charm, beg and make concessions to get MPs on board, the official argued. As there are no guarantees, he needs to convince as many MEPs as he can.

The lack of alternatives – and the fear of political chaos – certainly helps Ursula von der Leyen. If it does not reach the magic number of 361, even by a single vote, the European Council has a month to discuss and come up with another candidate, an outcome that would be unprecedented and could spark a political crisis, especially if it does not there is no other obvious candidate.

The need for political stability amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, Hungary’s tumultuous presidency of the EU Council and a possible change in US leadership in November helped von der Leyen win the support of EU heads of state and government last year month. Now, she and her team are doing the same with the European Parliament.

The great uncertainty is what the new MEPs will do. Today’s Parliament is more diverse and divided than any in the modern history of the EU.

“Some people will never vote for it because they don’t want the European Union to work,” said José Manuel Barroso, adding, however, that there are also those who want the EU to work.

“There is no credible alternative to Ursula von der Leyen,” he concluded.