The risk of the chronic crisis in Peru is to normalize the absence of long-term public policies, the absence of structural reforms and the continuity of problems in the institutional design that, although they are not the only cause of the crisis, are not being addressed with the objective of contribute to your solution.
Since July 2016, five presidents (two resigned and one was removed for permanent moral disability) and three congresses are symptoms of political instability. In addition, in this period, three key sectors in times of a pandemic had recurrent changes: 13 ministers of health, 15 ministers of the interior and 10 ministers of the economy and finance.
Pedro Castillo, like his predecessors, is a minority president, in a context of non-representative political parties. As a sign of this, he registered months before the elections with the Peru Libre party to run for president.
After six months in office, only 25% of the country approve of President Pedro Castillo’s performance and 69% disapprove of him. Approval is highest outside Lima and in rural areas, while disapproval is highest among young people and those under 42 in the north and center of the country.
The rapid deterioration is largely due to some improvised and impractical announcements, lack of transparency and signs of corruption. However, the biggest problem is the appointment of ministers of State and inexperienced authorities, questioned for their lack of suitability. As an example, the case of the third cabinet led by Congressman Valer lasted three days.
Valer was accused of domestic violence and had been investigated by prosecutors for corruption. However, the appointment of the new cabinet did not resolve the crisis, among other reasons, due to the continued presence in the post of ministers questioned for their manifest lack of suitability and investigations for acts of corruption.
The case of the Minister of Health is symptomatic, as the medical association asked for his resignation for performing his duties without specialization, promoting the consumption of a product without scientific evidence, as well as for maintaining an investigation for corruption. The dismissal and resignation of specialized employees has generated great concern in several sectors, as it weakens the little institutionality that had been built with great effort.
On the other hand, the unicameral Congress is highly fragmented. Ten parties were represented. They were organized into nine parliamentary groups. The government bench obtained the first majority with 28% of the seats. However, it was not a cohesive bench; in seven months it was reduced to 25% of the seats.
According to various sources, different factions within the government bench can be distinguished. However, Castillo managed through his cabinets to build a parliamentary support of more than 44 votes, which would protect him from a possible vacancy due to a permanent moral disability, for which two thirds of the votes are needed.
The female representation
The paradox is that the Congress elected for the period 2021-2026 holds the record for the highest number of women parliamentarians (38%) and, at the same time, the participation of women in the Executive has decreased substantially, from 36% in the last cabinets since 2016, to 15 %.
But it’s not just a matter of numbers. Minister Valer’s family violence case was described by another minister of state as “personal matters”, admitting that he too had a trial. This was compounded by the president’s silence and the absence of a strong statement excluding those who were prosecuted for this crime from participating in government.
Scenarios faced by President Castillo
President Castillo was elected until July 28, 2026. In Peru, the presidential candidacy is expected to include two vice presidents. The first vice president, Dina Boluarte, has a constitutional complaint for violating rules that limit the hiring of her family members with the state. The second vice president was unable to register his candidacy due to a court decision that prevents him from running.
Proposed solutions to the crisis involve appointing a chairman of the council of ministers who has the support of the public and the confidence of Congress to help lead the government. This is not without its problems because in Peru the president, according to the Constitution, is both head of state and head of government.
A second distant scenario is that the president resigns or that Congress justifies a vacancy due to permanent moral incapacity, with the limitations and questions that the institution has, since, as is known, it is not, strictly speaking, an impeachment. For this, it must reach 87 votes.
In such cases, the constitutional succession falls to the first vice president, who completes the term. If the first vice president is prevented from doing so, the president of Congress takes over and calls the elections. Given the silence in the Constitution about the nature of these elections, it is argued, on the one hand, that they should be presidential only, while another sector considers that they should be general.
The cabinet must seek a vote of confidence within 30 days of its appointment. If he does not obtain a majority of votes, he must resign. If Congress distrusts another cabinet or censors it, President Castillo can dissolve Congress.
With this agenda, the debate on a political reform that would improve the institutional project, eliminate the ban on parliamentary reelection, regulate impeachment and put obstacles in the way of dissolution of Congress, among other measures, was left in the background.
On the other hand, structural reforms were also left aside to reduce the growing informality, public policies to reactivate the economy and generate formal employment, address citizen safety, the environmental emergency and the return of students to face-to-face classes. The chronic political crisis affects the governance of the country.
