Russia’s president summoned Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov to a public meeting on Sunday and ordered them to “transfer deterrence forces” – a reference to nuclear weapons – “to the Russian army in a special way.” ».
Do Putin’s words have a specific military meaning?
Although the diplomatic threat was quite clear, the exact phrase confused the nuclear experts and the Ministries of Defense, who did not recognize what a “special way of fighting” might entail. But there was agreement that the threat, although somewhat elevated, remained low.
Pavel Podvig, widely regarded as a top expert on Russia’s nuclear forces, wrote on Twitter that Putin’s mandate “probably” meant “the nuclear command and control system has received what is known as a preliminary mandate.” This would activate the system, in effect, allowing the “launch command” to “execute if issued”.
He would also allow, he wrote, the launch of nuclear weapons “if the president is removed or can not be achieved”, but added, only if “he detects real nuclear explosions on Russian soil.”
David Cullen, of the Nuclear Intelligence Service, said that this was, in a way, “analogous to the British system”, where the commanders of the Trident nuclear submarines were given emergency letters, signed by the Prime Minister, with instructions on how to act. if the UK is believed to have been devastated by a total nuclear attack.
Putin’s nuclear stand requires the West to be extremely careful.
Both Podvig and other experts, such as James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment, said Putin’s mandate could also lead to further operational changes. This could include the deployment of further nuclear-armed submarines at sea or the deployment of long-range nuclear missiles around Russian territory, from where they could theoretically be used.
But that may not necessarily be the case, Podvig added, as Putin’s statement was deliberately ambiguous.
What do Western governments think?
Ben Wallace, Britain’s defense minister, said the United Kingdom did not recognize the terms used by Putin. “This is not a term that is in their dogma,” the minister told the BBC on Monday morning. The move, he said, was designed to scare the West and “remind the world that it has a deterrent” and was a distraction designed to ensure that the West “talked about it instead of the lack of success they have in Ukraine. “
The Defense Minister also warned that Russia could, in theory, use the so-called regular nuclear weapons in the fight against Ukraine. But that would amount to a huge – and still unlikely – escalation against what Putin has described as “one people” with the Russians.
“They could be as powerful as the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs. “Most people say there is no such thing as a non-strategic nuclear weapon,” said Sebastian Brixey-Williams, co-director of thinktank Basic.
Has Russia said anything more than Sunday to explain?
There was a message from the Kremlin itself on Monday that his statement was primarily a form of high-stakes diplomacy. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov said the decision came in response to various Western warnings that there could be “clashes and clashes between NATO and Russia.” He added: “I would not call the authors of these statements by their names, even though he was the British Foreign Secretary.”
Matthew Harris, a nuclear expert at thinktank Rusi, said the statements were a different kind of warning. It was, in the first case, a simple intimidation – “we can harm you and it is dangerous to fight us” – and a reminder to the West, which is increasingly equipping Ukrainians, not to go too far. “Russia may be planning a violent escalation in Ukraine and this is a ‘stay out’ warning to the West,” he said.
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