Presidential elections are being held in Venezuela today, in an atmosphere of great tension and a strong police and military presence, with the main candidates being the head of state Nicolas Madurowho warns that in case of defeat he is threatened with a “blood bath”, and the candidate of “change” Edmundo Gonzales Urutia.

About 21 of Venezuela’s 30 million eligible voters are heading to the polling stations, which opened at 06:00 local time (13:00 Greek time) and will close at 18:00 (01:00 Monday Greek time) , with results expected overnight.

There are ten candidates, but in reality it is a showdown between the 61-year-old Madurowho is running for a third six-year term, and Mr. Gonzales Urutiaa 74-year-old diplomat who hastily replaced the charismatic right-wing opposition leader Maria Corina Machadosince the latter was excluded from the process.

“Until victory, always” (Hasta la victoria siempre), promises the government, fight “until the end”, vows the opposition.

“If I’m not elected, there will be a civil war,” warns Maduro

Nicolas Maduro, Hugo Chavez’s military-based political heir and accused of a police crackdown on the opposition, has repeatedly said he has no intention of handing over power: chaos would follow.

“The future of Venezuela for the next 50 years is decided on July 28. Today it is decided whether peace or war will prevail in the country,” said Maduro, who warned of a possible “bloodbath in a civil war that the fascists may cause.”

Positioning that caused “fear” in its president Brazilian Lula: the center-left veteran commented that Nicolas Maduro “must understand that when you win you stay”, but “when you lose, you leave”.

Today’s election “will without a doubt be the most important democratic expression of the will of the people in recent years,” Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia said yesterday, calling on voters “to go to their polling stations at the end of the day and find that the results are net”.

The opposition and Western analysts fear that President Maduro, whom the opposition often describes as a “dictator”, will defy the rules of the game.

Rebecca Hanson of the University of Florida sees the possibility of an outbreak of violence “after the election result is announced”, as she considers the likelihood that President Maduro will accept the result in the event of his defeat “slight”.

Key to the political developments will be the attitude displayed by the security forces. “The Bolivarian National Armed Forces support me,” Mr. Maduro declares. His opponent, Mr. González Urrutia, demands that the generals “respect and guarantee that the sovereign will” of the people will be respected.

What do the polls show?

Some opinion polls have the opposition heading for victory but, based on its own calculations, the government says it is confident of victory.

“There is a movement for change”, according to him Luis Salamanca, university professor. Under “normal” conditions, the election result will be “an extremely large victory for the opposition,” he predicts.

Polls predict a defeat for Nicolas Maduro, according to various institutes it will not exceed 30%, while they credit the opposition from 50 to 70%.

“Although it is unlikely that the elections will be free or fair, the citizens of Venezuela have the best opportunity presented to them in the last decade and now to choose their government,” judges Juanita Gubertus by Human Rights Watch.