Ismail Haniya was the political leader and the most recognizable face of Hamas worldwide, managing the organization’s international relations. From his base in Doha, Qatar, he led negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza, but also played a balancing role between the military and political wings of Hamas.

The next question that arises immediately after the announcement of his assassination is whether this development will affect Hamas. According to a New York Times analyst, despite his leadership role, his assassination Ismail Haniya, it is unlikely to destabilize Hamas in the long term, as the organization has previously dealt with other assassinations of political and military leaders without further threats.

“His killing is a major blow,” he said in an interview with NYT analyst Ibrahim Madhoun, however, pointed out that “Hamas has faced this situation before” and “came out stronger.”

The long list of Hamas leaders assassinated by Israel includes Ahmed Yassin, founder and spiritual leader of Hamas, in 2004, Salah Sehande, founder of Hamas’ armed wing, in 2002, Abdel Aziz Radisi, senior leader of Hamas in Gaza in 2004 and Ahmed al-Jabari, the supreme commander, in 2012.

For decades, Haniya’s name was synonymous with that of Hamas.

But Hamas’s reliance on its institutions, rather than specific individuals, has helped it overcome the assassinations of its leaders in the past, Mkaimar Abusada, a political science professor from Gaza City, told the NYT.

“There is dependence on certain people in Hamas,” he said. “But the absence of these people does not lead to a vacuum, because Hamas has institutions and these institutions are ready to fill any vacuum.”

However, Hamas has limited ability to respond to Haniya’s killing on its own, as it has already been at war with Israel for nearly 10 months.

The last months, Ismail Haniya devoted much of his time to negotiations with the mediation of Qatar and Egypt to reach a truce, making Hamas’ positions known after internal discussions.

Hamas, Abusada said, likely to withdraw from cease-fire talks with Israelat least for a few days or weeks, but eventually he will have to return to stop the war and provide the Palestinians in Gaza with a reprieve from hostilities.

“Its options are limited,” he said, noting that Hamas’s military wing had been weakened in Gaza. The group, it said, could respond by launching an attack on the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Abusada stresses, however, that if Iran decides to respond, since the assassination took place within its borders, it could pose a much more significant challenge to Israel.

The next political leader of Hamas is likely to be someone from outside the West Bank and Gaza, because the position requires frequent travel. Most likely, the next leader of Hamas will be chosen by the Shura Council of Hamas.

When Haniya was first elected head of the Hamas politburo, he stayed in his hometown of Gaza City, but later moved with some of his family members to Doha.

Before assuming the leadership of the organization he had been the head of a number of important positions. He was a close adviser to Yassin, the founding leader of Hamas, prime minister of the only Hamas-led government, and leader of Hamas in Gaza, a position now held by Yahya Sinuarwho is considered the architect of the October 7 attacks in southern Israel.

As of 2017, he was the general chief of the Hamas politburo.

Khaled Meshal is among the candidates likely to succeed Haniya. Meshal has been in Doha for a long time and has participated alongside Haniya in meetings with ministers and officials.

“He can muster more unanimity in Hamas than anyone else,” sources inside Hamas say.

Mousa Abu Marzouk and Khalil al-Hayya, both senior Hamas officials in Doha, may also be candidates for the post previously held by Haniya.