The death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran on July 31 has sparked outrage and mourning. Crowds of people attended his public funeral on Thursday demanding revenge. And Israel may not yet have admitted that it is responsible for his death, however, if it is indeed behind it, then for some analysts it has dealt a great blow to Hamas.

Haniya he was destined to be the man to take over the Palestinian Authority the next years. October 7 was designed to catapult Hamas from its isolation in Gaza to control of Ramallah and the West Bank. This was the long-term plan of Hamas and by extension Turkey, Qatar, China and Russia, the Jerusalem Post points out in its analysis. So actually, Haniya was much more than the leader of Hamas. He was on a path to have real influence and power in the region.

China is also a key part of one of these plans. It even recently hosted 14 Palestinian factions in Beijing. Ankara and Doha have also been working towards the same goal for so long that according to the report it was none other than Hamas coming to power in the West Bank using a… Trojan Horse. In other words, there would be a unity agreement but Haniya would be behind it.

Strategic plans and regional influence

According to the analysis, the reason Doha delayed the hostage and ceasefire talks was in order for Hamas to gain more influence and survive in Gaza and then strike a deal that would allow it to gradually release the hostages. The hostage releases would take place slowly acting as bait to get Israel and the world to focus on the releases, while Hamas would simultaneously strengthen its role behind the scenes on the West Bank.

Not only did Haniya understand the importance of this process, but he was also well versed in the area. In fact, he was once the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority for a while in 2006. Since then he wanted to return to power, but ended up in Gaza and then moved to Qatar.

So, the loss of Hanias is definitely a big blow. The organization will likely struggle to find another well-known and popular leader who knows the region, who will also be the one to bring Hamas to power. Hamas has many more leaders who could take his place, but most of them are either not as well known or have lived abroad most of their lives.

Haniya’s death undoubtedly has long-term significance for Hamas’ strategy and certainly sets back its plans, forcing the organization itself and its supporters to rethink their next moves.