The European Union (EU) has earmarked €450 million for the purchase of weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including air defense systems, anti-tank weapons, ammunition and other equipment.
Another €50 million will be spent on providing supplies such as fuel, protective equipment, helmets and first-aid kits. Since the EU’s treaties do not allow the use of its normal budget for military purposes, the bloc is activating the so-called European Peace Mechanism, which allows it to provide military aid up to a ceiling of €5 billion.
This move follows a paradigm shift in German defense policy, which decided to supply Ukraine with weapons — including 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles — thus revising its ban on supplying weapons to countries at war.
The US has also stepped up its transfers and will provide an additional $350 million in military assistance, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, small arms and ammunition.
That brings total U.S. military aid to Ukraine to $1 billion in the last year — and to more than $2.5 billion since 2014. While Western aid gives Ukraine a big boost to repel Russian forces, there are doubts about the logistics and possible obstacles to the delivery of this equipment.
Depending on the type, armaments have been delivered by land or air. But now Ukraine’s airspace is controlled by Russian fighter jets, which could intercept the shipments through air and missile attacks. “If they know the routes, the Russians will be able to monitor them and look for the specific means of transport,” Gustav Gressel, from the European Council on Foreign Relations observatory, told DW.
The prospect of such interference highlights Poland, which shares a 535-kilometer border with Ukraine. The US Army, in particular, has a long history of sending forces and equipment through Poland. And the burden on Poland increases after Hungary refuses to pass weapons through its territory.
“Right now, the equipment is basically focusing on the Polish border. Even if Slovakia wanted to, for example, it’s not an easy route due to the geography of the mountain ranges that stretch from Slovakia to Romania. So there are two routes: one is close to the Belarusian border, the other a little further south,” says Ed Arnold, a European security researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, an observatory based in London.
According to Marc Finaud, head of weapons proliferation at the Center for Security Policy in Geneva, dynamics on the battlefield can change very quickly. “If these convoys or transports are intercepted — if Western countries are under attack, whether they are NATO members or crossing the border into Ukraine — it could increase tensions and escalation. [do conflito]”, he points out to DW.
Arnold says the risk of an escalation is currently holding back the Russians, as “this would aim at resupplying the West”. Still, he says he is surprised that Moscow has not stopped the delivery of arms to Ukraine. “Actually, this action would be useful for Russian strategy if they could take these two routes. Russia’s military has the option of moving from southwest Belarus to keep all this equipment out. [na Ucrânia]”, he explains.
The other crucial factor is time, which is quickly running out, for supplies to reach Ukrainian forces in Kiev and Kharkiv. Arnold says this factor is particularly problematic for “Ukrainian forces on the eastern line of contact, who will potentially be wiped out if they don’t move westward to the Dnipro River soon.” “They need to be given more weapons, because they are doing the toughest fighting and they are the best Ukrainian troops in the 95th Air Attack Brigade.”
According to the expert, there is another way to take Western weapons to the fronts in Ukraine. “Ukrainian or foreign fighter jets could pick up supplies in Poland and then cross the border, but they are not in large numbers,” he said.
At this stage, the danger of ammunition running out is critical, Arnold stresses: “The Ukrainians have maybe five days’ worth of ammunition for the heaviest systems. The other option is to capture abandoned Russian weapons, which will sustain them for a while, but not for long. time.”
