The war in Ukraine triggered the fastest mass migration in Europe in at least three decades, drawing comparisons to the Balkan wars of the 1990s and offering echoes of the vast population displacement that followed World War II.
At least 660,000 people, mostly women and children, fled Ukraine to neighboring countries to the west in the early days of Russia’s invasion, according to the United Nations refugee agency, which gathered statistics recorded by national immigration authorities.
And that number does not include those displaced in Ukraine, or those who fled or were ordered to evacuate to Russia.
In less than a week, the flight of Ukrainians is at least ten times greater than the record number of people who entered Europe during the 2015 migration crisis in a week, and almost double the number of refugees recorded by the UN in the first few days. 11 days into the Kosovo war in 1999.
The historic westward movement of people caused queues of up to 24 hours at checkpoints along Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, and prompted a vast humanitarian response from governments and civilians. Refugees were housed in adapted schools, as well as private apartments, makeshift camps, conference centers, luxury wineries and even the home of a Moldovan lawmaker.
“We don’t know where we are going,” said Anna Rogachova, 34, a housewife from Odessa, a Ukrainian city on the Black Sea, minutes after crossing into Moldova with her 8-year-old daughter on Tuesday morning. “And we don’t know when we’ll be back.”
“Let the world know,” Rogachova said, pointing to a multicolored suitcase in the back of her car. “We left everything. We put all our lives in this one bag.” So when the snow started to fall, she started to cry.
Some refugees believe the war will end soon, allowing them to return quickly. Rogachova wasn’t so sure.
A move that took years would present long-term challenges for Ukraine, which would face a brain drain of rare proportions, and for host countries where resources are limited and anti-immigrant sentiment is strong. But it can mean opportunities; Eastern European countries such as Modova, which have suffered from depopulation for decades, may suddenly find themselves driven by a large skilled immigrant population.
UN officials said the war could produce up to 4 million refugees. If the fighting continues and Ukrainians continue to migrate at the current rate, that could be a conservative estimate, said Philipp Ther, a professor of Central European history at the University of Vienna. “That would be on the scale of the post-war situation,” Ther said in a telephone interview.
Large numbers of civilians on the move can restrict the Ukrainian military’s ability to maneuver, just as huge flows of refugees hampered armies at the end of World War II, he said.
The extent of migration this week has been such that secondary blockages have occurred at crossings far beyond Ukraine’s borders, including between Moldova and Romania, 110 km west of Ukraine, as some Ukrainians tried to reach friends and family based in Central Europe and beyond.
In a way, the crisis came as no surprise. In Moldova, the government had been planning a sudden influx for months, Interior Minister Ana Revenco said in a telephone interview. But the scale of the crisis was shocking: as of Monday night, 70,000 people — more than double the government’s projections — had entered Moldova, a country of just 2.6 million and one of the poorest. from Europe.
The streams include almost no men between the ages of 18 and 60, who are prevented by the Kiev government from leaving Ukraine unless they have a medical condition that restricts their ability to fight.
“In terms of intensity,” Revenco said, “it was probably something no one was prepared for.”
Lost in the grand narratives were the sad little stories of individuals. Many were in shock — not just from the war itself, but also from how quickly they were ripped from their normal lives.
When war broke out on Thursday, Rogachova had just returned from a figure skating competition in Kharkiv, where her daughter Maria, 8, took first place.
A 17-year-old high school student had just celebrated her birthday in Odessa. A 34-year-old singer had just returned to Ukraine from Russia, dismissing rumors of war. On Tuesday morning, the three were under snow in Moldova, not knowing when or if they would return.
The singer, Julia Kondratieva, planned to advance further west, fearing that the war would spread to Moldova. “It’s not a good idea to stay,” she said. “Maybe there’s a fight here.”
Leaving in such a hurry, many forgot or abandoned their most valuable belongings. Aside from clothing, food and essential documents, Rogachova had packed only her daughter’s skates.
As is common at the beginning of mass migrations, the first to arrive were often those with the money and the means to move quickly. At the Palanca border crossing, and on Tuesday (1st), cars leaving Ukraine included 4x4s and German-made sedans. At a nearby winery and resort, most of the guests were Ukrainians, waiting to see if the war would subside before deciding whether to continue on the run.
But there were also many without these options. Across the snow-covered border, there were mothers pushing strollers, a student holding her books, a woman carrying a bag of toilet paper, and another with a puppy.
Some decided to leave just hours earlier, after an increase in airstrikes around the once-quiet Odessa. The night before leaving for Moldova, Rogachova was reunited with her daughter Maria and her mother Viktoria Tkatchenko — all native Russian speakers. “Never, ever forget that you are Ukrainian,” Tkatchenko told her granddaughter. “We will speak Ukrainian at home,” the child had promised. But now it was unclear where the house was.
Rogachova and her daughter were going to Germany to stay with friends of friends. Her mother was going to Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, to stay with an aunt. And standing in the snow, Rogachova was again crying.
