Russian President Vladimir Putin called a meeting of the Security Council on Friday, while the military leadership sent reinforcements to Russia’s western Kursk region as the surprise Ukrainian invasion presents the Russian leader’s biggest challenge since Wagner’s mercenary uprising in June 2023.

With the Russian military scrambling to quell the offensive, which is now in its fourth day, questions are being raised about the failure of military intelligence and the strategy that allowed Ukrainian troops to cross the border and seize what Russian analysts estimate to be about 100 square miles of land in Kursk .

Russia has declared a state of emergency at the “federal level” in the Kursk region, while its Ministry of Defense of Russia said that reinforcements are heading to the Kursk region to counter the Ukrainian incursion. Russia sent Grad multiple launch missile systems, artillery and tanks, the RIA-Novosti news agency reported, citing the Defense Ministry.

Ukrainian troops have made rapid advances in recent days, reportedly penetrating up to 35 kilometers into Russian territory, according to the independent Institute for the Study of War based in the USA. In fact, Kiev launched a massive attack with drones, hitting an air base and destroying ammunition depots in the city of Lipetsk, which is located deeper in Russian territory.

The attack on Kursk, which is next to Ukraine’s Sumy region, caught Russian defenses understaffed and almost “asleep,” the Washington Post reports in an analysis.

A blow to Putin and the Russian military

“This is a very big blow to the reputation of the Russian authorities, the military and Putin,” said a Russian business executive, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Because for two and a half years there has been minimal damage to Russian territory, except for occupied Ukraine. It was just drones.”

“Now it is not clear how many victims there have been, while there has been some destruction and it is clear that it will not end quickly,” he added.
Some Russian analysts say it could take a long time for Russian forces to retake territory seized by Ukrainian troops if a large-scale counteroffensive by Russian reinforcements is delayed for several more days. Ukrainian brigades would have time to occupy strongholds, potentially giving Kiev a strong bargaining chip in the event of future ceasefire or peace talks.

A leading member of the Russian parliament, reports Washington Post, o Andrei Guruliov, who is a former deputy commander for Russia’s southern military district, expressed his displeasure at the failed response to the invasion. In a Telegram post, Guruliov called on the military prosecutor to investigate commanders’ decisions to withdraw defense forces from the Kursk region before the attack.

Questions were also raised about the failure to assess, according to Guruliov, information about an attack by the Ukrainian armed forces 48 hours before the start of the invasion.

Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-linked political analyst, said there were obvious failures. “This is a blow because it is clear that the signal came from the intelligence to the leadership, but … no action was taken,” Markov said. “This is a failure of the entire intelligence system, and since Putin is responsible for this, it is clear that this is a blow to Putin.”

However, Markov said the situation could be resolved if Ukraine’s offensive is stopped. “People are still hoping that this will result in the destruction of Ukrainian forces,” he said.

Unverified video of the fighting in Kursk showed that Ukrainian forces had used Western vehicles and weapons in the attack, which officials in Washington, Berlin and other allies called a “legitimate” defense of Kiev.

On Friday, police in Shumi reported that 270 local residents had been killed since Russia’s invasion began in February 2022. As they prepared for Russian retaliation, Shumi authorities said they ordered the evacuation of 20,000 residents.

Ukraine’s surprise cross-border incursion followed weeks of intense summer fighting during which Russia has made steady gains in eastern Ukraine, putting pressure on Kiev’s exhausted and fatigued forces.

The motivation of the Ukrainian attack

Analysts believe the attack may be intended to divert Russian troops from other locations along the front, as well as to put pressure on future negotiations. Some military experts question the gains Ukraine would make from the attack given its weakness at other key points on the front, and predicted that Russia’s much larger and better-equipped army would likely drive the Ukrainians out soon.

However, the successful operation on Russian soil — after more than two years of fighting almost entirely in Ukraine — had psychological value for Kiev, boosting the morale of Ukrainian troops and civilians while showing the weaknesses of Putin and his military.

THE Mihailo Podoliakan adviser to the Ukrainian president, argued that any military actions on Russian soil could improve Ukraine’s position in future negotiations with Russia to end the war. Podoliak did not comment specifically on the Kursk invasion.

Ukrainian officials have remained remarkably quiet about the operation and the President Volodymyr Zelensky, commenting indirectly, he said that Russia “must feel” the consequences of the war it has caused in Ukraine.

Markov said it is possible that the Ukrainian government plans to use the seized territory as a bargaining chip in future talks and that it is now a race against time for Russian troops to strike back before the Ukrainian brigades finalize their gains.

The conduct of the war so far has shown that “the advantage goes to those who defend themselves,” he said. “I think their plan is to take as much ground as possible.”

Although Russia has a larger air force than Ukraine, Moscow’s recent military operations in Kharkiv and Donbass showed that it is extremely difficult to occupy territories. “If they act at the same speed that Russia is attacking elsewhere, it could take a year to retake the Kursk region,” Markov said.

Reports from Russian military bloggers and pro-war Telegram channels suggest that Ukrainian troops have captured more than 20 Russian border villages and part of the small town of Shuja. The head of the city administration in Kurchatov, home to Russia’s Kursk nuclear power plant, said on Friday that Ukrainian troops were closing in on the nuclear power plant.

Ukrainian-backed anti-Kremlin militias have previously launched several cross-border attacks on Russian soil, but the operation in Kursk marked the most effective incursion to date.

“Ukrainian forces have clearly advanced quite a bit in Kursk, but how much territory they control or actually intend to control remains unknown,” said Michael Coffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.