The word Kursk was one of the first things BBC correspondent Steve Rosenberg wrote when he took up his post in Moscow. It was in 2000, when he was broadcasting the information about the sinking of the Kursk submarine in the icy waters of the Barents Sea, where 118 Russian soldiers had died.

THE Vladimir Putin he was then president for less than half a year and was heavily criticized by Russian channels for his handling of the disaster.

This week marks 24 years since the sinking of the Kursk submarine. And, once again, the word Kursk fills Rosenberg’s responses from Russia. This time because of the surprise Ukrainian invasion nine days ago.

Russia 2024 is very different from Russia 2000, comments Rosenberg.

This time on Russian television there is not a trace of criticism of President Putin for the decisions he made. The Kremlin, the BBC journalist comments, has had a quarter of a century to impose strict control over the country’s media.

Even so, will the latest events hurt Vladimir Putin?

It’s a question he’s been asked several times over the past two and a half years:

  1. In 2022 when Ukraine sank the warship Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet
  2. a few months later after the lightning retreat of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine
  3. and again in 2023 during the Wagner Rebellion, when armed mercenaries marched on Moscow – a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin’s rule.

President Putin came through all this unscathed. He is confident that he can overcome this last challenge as well.

But there is one difference. Wagner’s rebellion was over within a day.

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia has been going on for more than a week. The longer it goes on, the greater the pressure will be on the Russian leadership and, potentially, the greater the damage to Putin’s power.

During his two and a half decades in power, Mr Putin has cultivated the image of “Mr Security”, the only man in this vast country capable of keeping Russians safe.

His so-called “special military operation” (i.e. the Russian invasion of Ukraine) was presented to the Russian people as a way to enhance Russia’s national security.

Two and a half years later, there is little sign that the country is safe. Instead, there is more NATO on Russia’s borders, with Sweden and Finland joining the Alliance, Russian cities being regularly attacked by Ukrainian drones, and now Ukrainian soldiers are occupying Russian territory.

With the words he chooses, Putin wants to show Russians that there is no reason to panic.

When referring to the Ukrainian invasion, he avoided using the word “invasion”. Instead, he spoke of “the situation in the border area” or “the events taking place”. The Kremlin leader also called the Ukrainian attack a “provocation.”

What will the Russian president do next?

Don’t wait for him to pick up the phone and call Kiev. Russian officials have made it clear that, after the Ukrainian attack, the idea of ​​peace talks is on hold.

This is not to say that any large-scale negotiation was planned before the Ukrainian invasion.

In fact, this week Putin announced exactly what his intention is: “…to push the enemy off Russian soil.”

However, it is one thing to say it and another thing to do it. Despite the deployment of additional Russian forces in Kursk, the Russian military has yet to regain control of that part of the territory.

Vladimir Putin has shown no sign of remorse for invading Ukraine. He never regrets the decisions he made.

If his public statements reflect his current state of mind, he still believes there is only one possible outcome of this war: Russian victory.