The war in Ukraine has completed a week with Russian forces apparently moderating the intensity of their attacks on neighboring infrastructure as diplomatic initiatives gained traction.
Wednesday (2) is being considered the most violent day of the conflict so far, but, for now, Thursday registered slower movements. The bombing of the capital Kiev and of Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city, continued, but less intensely than the day before. There were, however, attacks on civilian areas.
There was no report of the dreaded armored column approaching northeast of Kiev. Some analysts speculate that there are logistical problems, such as the lack of fuel that hit some armored vehicles elsewhere in the country, and others suggest a tactical pause before the final siege of the city.
There was also a consolidation of the situation in the strategic city of Kherson, taken on the fourth by the Russians. It establishes a beachhead north of Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Putin in 2014 in the crisis that gave rise to the current war. From there, heading east, the Russians will try to conquer Mariupol and thus establish a land connection between Crimea and the Donbass, the eastern area of ​​the country that has also been in the hands of pro-Kremlin separatist rebels since 2014.
This is an apparent secondary strategic objective of the campaign, which aims to nullify any chance of Ukraine joining NATO, the western military alliance, or the European Union, although only the military objective is made explicit by Putin. The political goal would be to avoid making one’s neighbor a democratic showcase for the opposition in their own country.
Whatever the answer about the pace of the offensive, it obeys the political logic of the day. A Ukrainian delegation flew to Belarus by helicopter to meet a Russian group that arrived the day before.
On Monday (28), the conversation between them came to nothing. There was an expectation leaked by the Russian Foreign Ministry that a ceasefire could be negotiated, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already said Russian demands for surrender are unacceptable.
One of the Ukrainian negotiators, David Arajamia, posted on Facebook that on the menu of the conversation is the establishment of “humanitarian corridors” for the safe evacuation of civilians from conflict areas. “Furthermore, it will be circumstances [que ditarão o rumo da reunião]”, he said.
Putin also spoke on Thursday with President Emmanuel Macron of France, who has adopted sharp rhetoric after he tried to avoid war on visits to Moscow and Kiev that resulted in diplomatic muddles for Paris. The Frenchman also spoke on the phone with Zelenski.
There is growing fear in Europe that the war will go beyond Ukrainian borders. Every other day, some Russian or Western authority talks about the fear of a world, nuclear conflict. The fact that the Russian leader has been using this threat since the day he decreed the invasion and on Sunday (27) put his strategic forces on high alert has only worsened the mood.
This Thursday, the Russian chancellor, Sergei Lavrov, spoke again on the subject. “Thinking about [guerra] nuclear is constantly on the minds of Western politicians, but not on the minds of Russians,” he said, ignoring what his boss has been doing since the beginning of the conflict.
One of the ways the situation could escalate is the Kremlin’s interpretation of NATO countries’ military aid to Ukraine. Thousands of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles are being promised, and it is uncertain how many have arrived — there does not appear to have yet been a decisive impact on the ability to stop the Russians, but that could change or instigate more violence.
The US insistently repeats that NATO will not fight the Russians. But if Western weapons are read to be killing more of Putin’s soldiers, there is a risk that Moscow will feel it is under direct attack, not to mention the brutal economic sanctions it has been subjected to.
