With few natural resources of its own, the issue of energy has long worried Israel. Escalating tensions on the border with Lebanon could plunge the country into darkness, negatively impacting its power grid, former deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich told Politico.

“If Hezbollah decides it’s going to attack power plants and other facilities, it’s a big problem,” he said. “They have precision missiles that can target civilian infrastructure, and it’s hard to run a modern country without electricity and without computers.”

The lion’s share of power plants are gas-fired in Israel. One of the country’s main success stories in recent years has been to wean itself off foreign imports after the discovery of about 1,000 billion cubic meters of natural gas off its coast — equivalent to about 70 years of its current consumption.

Gas games

According to Elai Rettig, an assistant professor of energy geopolitics at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv, gas is also a diplomatic tool in combating efforts to isolate Israel, with neighboring countries buying huge volumes.

“For Jordan and Egypt, it would be impossible to boycott Israel at this point because Israel is the one that keeps the lights on in Amman and Cairo and some would say it has scaled back their response and limited how much they can criticize Israel.” he said. “Egypt already has three or four blackouts a day and about 70% of Jordan’s power is produced with Israeli gas.”

The escalating conflict with Hezbollah in South Lebanon now threatens this regional status quo. The Tamar field – one of the three main natural gas reserves – has already been temporarily shut down due to security concerns due to its proximity to Gaza, and the Leviathan field is close to the northern border and could be targeted by rocket attacks.

“One of the reasons why Israel tried to avoid a two-front wargoing against Hezbollah and Hamas at the same time, is because it cannot afford to shut down both Tamar and Leviathan at the same time,” he said. “It has no alternative to gas. But if you hit those fields, you’re hurting your friends, not just your enemies – so this partnership is also something of a deterrent.”

Access to crude oil, gasoline and diesel has long been a major headache for Israeli politicians, and Arab-led embargoes following regional wars in 1967 and 1973 triggered devastating energy crises. In response, Israeli security services began a covert program of trading weapons for oil from African dictatorships.

While exact statistics on Israel’s oil imports are a national secret, Azerbaijan has now emerged as its leading partner, having sold Israel $300 million worth of crude oil last January alone, while receiving massive amounts of weapons for use in its conflict with neighboring Armenia.

“Israel valued Azerbaijan as a critical ally in the Muslim-majority world, offering not only strategic support but also substantial energy security,” said Ayaz Rzayev, a researcher at the Topchubashov Center in Baku.

But even that relationship is becoming more uncertain as the war in Gaza escalates, Rzayev said, given that “Azerbaijan also attaches great importance to its solidarity with Muslim states.” Turkey, Azerbaijan’s closest ally, has become a leading champion of the Palestinian cause with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposing an unprecedented trade embargo on Israel.

“The big question is what are the Turks doing,” said Freilich, a former national security official. “Most of Israel’s oil comes through pipelines from Turkey and if they wanted to they could cut off the spigot.”

The danger of the Houthis

Already balancing the threat of direct attacks on its infrastructure and increasing pressure on its partners, Israel is also increasingly seeing its supply lines targeted – mainly by Houthi.

Although the negative effects of the Houthi strikes have so far been limited, “the regional gas market is more exposed” and could make importing gas by sea more expensive and more complicated, said Dan Marks, an energy security expert. at the Royal United Services Institute.

“As the global LNG market has been tight since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is likely to remain so until 2025, this could have an impact on prices,” he said.

At the same time, a more immediate conflict with Iran is looming, after Tehran vowed to take revenge on Israel after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas. For Israel, however, the prospect of blackouts could cause intense resentment among Israeli citizens, experts say.

“Israelis are not used to blackouts,” said Rettig, the professor at Bar-Ilan. “We have about three hours of blackouts a year on average usually, so just the thought of being without power for two days causes Israelis to panic and go buy generators.”