Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time associated the harsh economic and political sanctions his country has been subjected to since invading Ukraine with an “escalation of the situation”.
During a ministerial meeting that was partially televised, the leader said: “We have no bad intentions towards our neighbors. I would also like to advise them not to escalate the situation, not to introduce any restrictions. We will fulfill our obligations and we will continue to fulfill them”.
He was probably referring to the Russian supply of gas and oil to Europeans, a global economic concern, as the continent consumes 40% of the first product and about 1/3 of the second.
The point is that several countries are already cutting their future hydrocarbon business from Moscow due to the war, such as Sweden and Finland, which will no longer refine Russian oil. Purchasing and shipping conditions are in chaos due to US threats to veto such deals with Russia.
Putin was careful not to make a military threat, but that is a dangerous corollary of the isolation he is being subjected to. “All our actions, if they arise, will always be in response to unfriendly actions against Russia,” he said.
So far, the leader has spoken through his spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, who sought to criticize the sanctions and say that the country would manage even with them. But no one anticipated that the actions would include attacking international reserves managed by the Russian Central Bank, at $640 billion, the fourth largest in the world.
This is making defending the ruble nearly impossible, nines out of the pressure on members of the elite who maintain a relationship of mutualism with Putin’s presence in the Kremlin and real life in the country. Electronic means of payment are no longer easily used, cards will be limited and the country is “cancelled”.
What is new here is the association that Putin makes. Growing fears that the conflict in Ukraine will spill over borders and involve NATO, the western military alliance, has put the issue of a Third World War back on the agenda. But there is consensus, so far, that this only involves the military dimension.
Thus, there is a risk of incidents in the supply of weapons that Europe is promoting across the Polish border to Kiev, but at no time is there any prediction of direct use of NATO forces in the war.
Even to underscore this, Putin has been balancing his nuclear arsenal, the largest in the world alongside that of the United States, as a reminder of the risk everyone is running. On Sunday (27), he put his strategic forces on combat alert, sparking protests in the West.
Seeking to bolster its stance, NATO also on Friday formally rejected Ukraine’s request to seek to establish a no-fly zone over the invaded country. Doing so would mean declaring war on Russia, as it would put air defense systems and pilots from both sides face to face.
That was already given, not least because it was rejected from the beginning by the real head of NATO, US President Joe Biden. But it was up to the Secretary-General, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, to reaffirm this in public.
In addition, he repeated his condemnation of Russian aggression and the attack that took over the Zaporijia nuclear power plant and caused a fire that was now under control. He also said the Russians were using cluster bombs, banned by a treaty to which neither Moscow nor Kiev is a party.
They are terrible weapons, as a projectile spreads several firecrackers over a large area, and many do not explode, leaving them exposed to the unwary – often children – to detonate them unintentionally.
Stoltenberg also said again that the troop reinforcements, 22,000 so far, in Eastern European countries belonging to the alliance are aimed at defending every bit of NATO territory.
It is the possible deterrent, but also the limit of the West in this dispute. There are even discussions about the extent to which the delivery of portable anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles will be ignored by Russia. The darkest bet is: until they start to make some clear difference on the pitch.
