Senior White House officials who are designing the strategy to confront Russia have begun internally discussing a new concern: that the avalanche of sanctions aimed at Moscow, which has accelerated faster than they thought, is cornering President Vladimir Putin and could lead to attack, perhaps expanding the conflict beyond Ukraine.
At White House Crisis Room meetings, the issue has come up repeatedly in recent days, according to three officials. Putin’s tendency, as US intelligence officials have told the White House and Congress, is to double down when he feels undermined by his own excesses.
So they described a range of possible reactions, ranging from indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian cities to make up for early mistakes made by their invading force, to cyberattacks on the US financial system, more nuclear threats, and perhaps actions to take the war beyond the borders of the United States. Ukraine.
Discussion over Putin’s next moves is linked to an urgent review by intelligence agencies regarding the Russian leader’s mental state and whether his ambitions and risk appetite have been altered by the two years of Covid-19 isolation. Those concerns intensified after Putin’s order on Sunday to put the country’s strategic nuclear weapons on alert, “combat ready”, in reaction to “aggressive comments” from the West.
In the days that followed, however, US security officials say they saw little evidence that Russia’s nuclear forces actually assumed a different state of readiness.
A sign of deep US concern was evident when Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Wednesday that he was canceling a previously scheduled test of the Minuteman nuclear missile to avoid escalating direct challenges to Moscow or give Putin an excuse to re-invoke the power of the country’s nuclear arsenal.
“We did not take this decision lightly, but rather to demonstrate that we are a responsible nuclear power,” Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said on Wednesday. “We recognize at this time of tension how critical it is for the US and Russia to take into account the risk of miscalculation and take steps to reduce those risks.” However, Putin’s reaction to the initial wave of sanctions has sparked a series of concerns that one official called “the problem of Putin cornered”.
Those concerns are centered around a series of recent announcements: the withdrawal of oil companies such as Exxon and Shell from developing Russia’s oil fields; the measures against the Central Bank of Russia, which caused the ruble to plummet; and Germany’s surprise announcement that it would drop its ban on sending lethal weapons to Ukrainian forces and increasing its military spending.
Other than canceling the missile test, however, there is no evidence the US is considering measures to reduce tensions, and one official said there was no interest in rolling back sanctions.
“Quite the contrary,” said the person, who, like other US officials interviewed for this story, requested anonymity to comment on discussions between government advisers.
Indeed, President Joe Biden announced expanded sanctions on Thursday, targeting the Russian oligarch class. Many of those named — including Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s spokesman and one of his close advisers — are among his most influential supporters and beneficiaries of the system he created. Biden, reading a statement and not responding to questions, said the sanctions had “already had a profound impact”.
Within hours of his speech, the S&P index downgraded Russia’s credit rating to CCC-, the agency announced in a statement. It’s far below the levels Russia was classified a few days after the invasion and just two notches above a warning that the country is entering a moratorium.
This suggested that Putin’s effort to “sanctions-proof” his economy has largely failed. And, at least for now, there is no visible way out for the Russian leader, other than to declare a ceasefire or withdraw his forces — steps he has so far shown no interest in taking.
At a press conference at the White House on Thursday, press secretary Jen Psaki said she was unaware of any moves to show Putin a way out. “I think at the moment they are marching towards Kiev with a convoy and continuing to take barbaric measures against the people of Ukraine. So this is not the time when we are offering options to reduce sanctions.”
However, a senior State Department official, asked about the government’s debates over future risks, said there were nuances in the government’s approach that point to possible ways out for the Russian leader. Biden’s policy, the official said, is not to seek regime change in Russia. The idea, he said, is to influence Putin’s actions, not his grip on power.
And sanctions, the official noted, were designed not as punishment but as leverage to end the war. They will escalate if Putin does, the official said. But the government will calibrate its sanctions and perhaps ease them if Putin starts to relax.
Putin’s strategy in the coming weeks, other US officials have warned in meetings closed since the crisis has accelerated, could be to redirect the conflict to Washington, hoping to deflect attacks on civilians in Ukraine and rouse a nationalist reaction to the actions of a former opponent.
If Putin wants to attack the US financial system, as Biden attacked his, he has only one significant path: his well-trained army of hackers and a group of criminal ransomware operators, some of whom have publicly pledged to help in his battle.
Members of Congress have also raised fears that Putin will activate Moscow’s network of criminal hackers, who have conducted ransomware attacks across the US that shut down hospitals, meat-processing plants and the Colonial Pipeline network, which transported nearly half of the country’s gasoline and diesel fuel. and jet fuel on the East Coast.
“If the situation escalates further, I think we will see Russian cyberattacks against our critical infrastructure,” said Republican Representative Mike Gallagher, a member of the House Intelligence Committee and co-chair of an influential cyberspace committee.
But Putin’s next step will likely be to step up his operations in Ukraine, which would almost certainly result in more civilian casualties and destruction. “It wasn’t easy for Putin, and now he has no choice but to double down,” said Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence officer. “That’s what autocrats do. You can’t give up everything, or you’ll look weak.”
