Since the Friedrich Mertz was elected its president Christian Democratic Party at the end of January 2022, it is often said within the party that he has the best chance of being the chancellor candidate of the Christian Union (CDU and CSU) in the 2025 federal election.

The decision is expected to be made after the local elections in Brandenburg on September 22.

Friedrich Merz is considered more low-key compared to the head of the Christian Socialists Marcus Zender. The Bavarian prime minister is the one who insistently and loudly calls for the replacement of the governing coalition consisting of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals. Both, however, use sharp language that Angela Merkel has never used before.

Mertz and Zender made their parties more conservative

Both have made their parties more conservative. The CDU and the CSU are independent parties, but belong to the same parliamentary group in the Federal Parliament. The CSU is active only in Bavaria, the CDU in the remaining 15 federal states. Until now they have always agreed on a common candidate for chancellor, who usually came from the Christian Democrats.

Political scientist Thomas Biebricher from the University of Frankfurt told DW that this is “a fundamental decision of great importance. This applies not only to the parties of the Christian Union themselves, but also to the party system.” Bibricher has dealt with the crisis of political conservatism internationally and the rise of right-wing parties from the 1990s onwards.

Some of the statements made by the two main competitors during the summer are certainly in line with these trends and are sometimes perceived as ambiguous or populist.

According to opinion polls, Markus Zender appears more popular than Friedrich Merz. In the latest poll by ARD “Deutschlandtrend” Zender collected 41% as a possible chancellor candidate and Merz only 23%. He garners smaller percentages than even the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wist, another possible chancellor candidate from the Christian Democratic Party.

Tones will be sour

Thomas Biebricher is aware of the opinion polls and of Zender’s lead, but remains doubtful whether this will be taken into account by the decision-makers in the Christian Democratic Party: “In the CDU there are still significant reservations about Markus Zender and his stance on 2021 during the election campaign”. His confrontation at the time with his rival and later CDU president Armin Lasset did not leave a good impression on the party and many still remember it, says the political scientist.

Despite the good poll results, Zender “isn’t the one who can make up his mind about it. It’s outside his sphere of influence.” This could only happen if his opponent Friedrich Mertz made a major mistake, for example by supporting the “wrong” government formation in the eastern states where elections were recently held.

But whoever the candidate of the Christian Union is, what Thomas Bibricher sees is that the tones will be sharpened, especially when it comes to immigration policy.

Edited by: Maria Rigoutsou