“Vladimir Putin is a threat to Europe and the entire underlying world order after the Cold War,” Dr. Alexander Cooley, a professor of political science at Columbia University, said in an interview with SKAI and Apostolos Magiriadis.
The professor estimated that Putin, seeing Ukraine sliding to the west, decided to take it upon himself and press the absolute button of the attempt to forcibly change the orientation of Ukraine. Mr Cooley noted that fighting could always get out of hand.
On whether what is happening is a new Cold War, the Professor stressed that this is a protracted conflict between two blocs.
In fact, he explained, we are seeing a hot war in Europe.
Read the interview in detail
Dr. Cooley, thank you for being on tonight.
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
My pleasure.
– What are we seeing at the moment? Do you think that Vladimir Putin is a threat to the whole of Europe?
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
Absolutely. It is a threat to Europe and the entire underlying world order after the Cold War. This whole system of domination and security, which he has been protesting for a long time. We also had the Georgia war that Russia waged in 2008. As well as its invasion in 2014. But this time seeing Ukraine sliding west, it decided to take it upon itself and press the absolute button of the effort to forcibly change the orientation of Ukraine.
– Did you expect it?
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
I did not expect the full invasion, perhaps a recognition of the other territories, but I do not think that many in the expert community thought he would have the audacity to try to invade and conquer a country. And in fact, it seems that the plan was not to conquer the country. The plan was to make a change of regime, and so far it has failed.
– What do you think is his main goal? What we are looking at here, I mean, do we expect Putin to possibly even invade Moldova?
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
Moldova could be a possibility in the sense that Putin is very concerned about the post-Soviet states that have not already disappeared, such as the Baltic, which are oriented to the west and want to connect with the EU, the West, NATO. , of course. And so he previously thought that through a decentralization agreement he could veto Ukraine. When he saw that Zelensky was not prepared to implement these parts of the Minsk agreement, he felt that it was time to change Ukraine by force, otherwise he would be irreversibly lost. But certainly, Moldova is another one of those post-Soviet states that have moved away and where it finally wants to control.
– During the Cold War, there was this doctrine of restraint and there was a balance of nuclear terror. With Russian forces occupying a nuclear power plant, I wonder how safe we ​​must consider ourselves here in Europe.
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
Obviously battles can always get out of hand. I think you saw a very worrying battle yesterday that could have escaped. But of course, we have 15 nuclear power plants in Ukraine, and some of them have much more modern technology than Chernobyl and can withstand shocks. But of course all this is part, I think, of his psychology trying to show that, you know, he carries out his threats.
– Is a new Cold War what we are seeing?
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
I think this is definitely a protracted conflict between two blocs. In the post-Cold War era the blocs were entangled. Western capitalism, that is, Western companies had come to Russia and the Russians had embraced them and then the Russian oligarchs had embraced the West. What you see is the elimination of this relationship.
But many analysts say it is not a Cold War. In fact, we are witnessing a hot war in Europe.
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
Well, hot war is the scenario we all want to avoid, and especially the escalation of hot war, especially in a possible NATO-Russia conflict. Yes.
– Everyone is wondering what will be China’s role in this conflict? And do we have any clues as to how Beijing is assessing the situation right now?
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
We have some clues. Clearly, China sees Russia as a strategic partner, but it also sees serious damage to its reputation from what is happening now. I do not think he imagined that Russia would be so isolated and also try the full attack it is making now. It is very interesting that we see a double Chinese piece. On the one hand, they abstain and support Russia in the UN. But just today, for example, China-led multilateral development banks have said they will oust Russia and Belarus from their portfolios. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank. Thus, China is certainly concerned that sanctions could pose a threat to its own companies and its own investments, so it wants to try to isolate the damage it is causing. At the same time, China is in a very good position to dictate new economic relations to China in terms of investment, oil and gas on its own terms, because Russia will have no alternative under this sanctions regime.
– Now is there a good scenario for this conflict that we could consider?
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
The good scenario is that the West, in coordination with Ukraine, is setting a set of strategic goals with which they could be happy and trying to persuade Vladimir Putin to de-escalate. The worst-case scenario is that Vladimir Putin feels threatened on two fronts now. He feels threatened because the war in Ukraine is not proceeding as he had planned, but he also sees internal unrest. It is threatened twice from outside and inside. And so the nightmarish scenario is to somehow escalate it into a full-blown conflict involving Russia and NATO, or possibly Belarus and NATO on those borders.
And last year, for the last two years, we’ve been talking about the idea of ​​the US leaving Europe and shifting its focus to other parts of the world. And I wonder if the Ukrainian crisis is making us send the US back to Europe.
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
I think recent history is repeating itself. Just as President Obama spoke very openly about his desire to turn to Asia, and the Baltic states were very upset, the Eastern European allies were very upset and then we had 2014. Now we see a similar dynamic. That the Biden administration’s priority was to focus on China and put relations with Russia on a stable and managing front. And of course, that has not happened.
– Thank you very much Dr. Cooley
Dr. ALEXANDER COULEY
Prof. of Political Science Univ. Columbia
It was my pleasure.
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