This time everything happened quickly, faster than everyone expected. “We are again on the road to success” the leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU) declares in heartfelt sympathy Friedrich Mertz and the chairman of the sister party of the Bavarian Christian Socialists (CSU) Marcus Zenderin a joint press conference, breaking the news: Friedrich Merz will be the candidate of the center-right party for the parliamentary elections of 2025, with an opponent – unexpectedly – the current chancellor Olaf Solz. The internal party debate on the right candidate was closed before it had even begun. At 68, Mertz will be the oldest chancellor candidate in 50 years.

He estimates that the elections will be decided on two fronts: Immigration, which “remains a major issue, although I would prefer it not to be the main issue in the 2025 election campaign” and the state of the economy. Faithful to the traditional rhetoric of the Christian Democrats, Mertz emphasizes that “we need a policy that promotes the social market economy” and is based on the logic of “equal opportunities for all and not subsidies for the few”.

What will the Bavarian prime minister do?

As for Marcus Zender, it looks like he’s being forced to retire his own ambitions, once again. Far from favorable for the unity of the center-right faction was what happened in the 2021 elections, when the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Lasset had received the anointing, with Zender publicly expressing his disagreements, considering that he would be the most suitable candidate. Finally, on the night of the elections, the one who celebrated was Olaf Solz and the social democratic party.

But even after the elections Zender remained in the limelight, arguing (against the prevailing opinion) that the office of prime minister in one of the federal states of Germany it does not ensure any kind of precedence in intra-party processes for the anointing and for the chancellery. “There are many prime ministers, only two party presidents” he used to say, meaning that only Mertz or himself should receive the anointing.

But it was the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia who made yesterday’s “checkmate move” to give what appears to be a decisive lead to Mertz. In particular, the 49-year-old state premier Hendrik Wüst, a rising star of the CDU, who many considered a “stealth” candidate for the chancellor or at least a moderator in the Merz and Zender duel, has made it clear that he is not currently interested in higher office. At the same time, he expressed his support for Mertz. So the deck was reshuffled, obviously not in Zender’s favor.

“Stamp” Merz on the CDU program

For Mertz, being anointed the chancellor is the next logical step after his elevation to the Christian Democratic presidency in 2022. Some of his ambitious pronouncements at the time (such as his promise to “halve the AfD’s ) were refuted by reality. However, Friedrich Merz, a lawyer, but specialized in economic and tax matters, has already managed to leave his “stamp” on the CDU’s election program. He is assisted by the General Secretary of the party and his loyal partner, Carsten Linnemann.

Both hail from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, east of the industrial Ruhr Valley. It is a rural area, Catholic and deeply conservative, which nevertheless has notable tourist attractions, as well as numerous small and medium-sized businesses.

Once he took over the reins of the party, Merz began to move it towards more conservative positions than those expressed during 16 consecutive years in the chancellorship of Angela Merkel. Today the Christian Democrats advocate a restrictive immigration policy, maintain a clear distance from Islam, agree with the emergence of a “dominant culture” in everyday life, support the gradual reintroduction of compulsory military service in Germany.

When it comes to foreign policy, Mertz comes across as more of an “Atlanticist” than a pro-European. He has visited the US many times, speaks perfect English and is considered well-connected on the other side of the Atlantic.

15 years after the “resignation”

Friedrich Merz was one of many losers left behind by Angela Merkel on her own march to power. Although he was an experienced member of parliament, having been in the Bundestag since 1994, Angela Merkel removed him from the leadership of the parliamentary group after the election defeat in 2002. In 2004, Merz was not elected to the party presidency, and in 2009 he was forced to leave permanently ( as it seemed at the time…) from politics.

But he had a career in the private sector, while in 2016 he assumed the presidency of Blackrock’s German subsidiary. He rarely spoke publicly about the Merkel government and, when he did, his comments were rather negative. As soon as the chancellor left the party presidency, Friedrich Merz again took part in the internal party processes for the emergence of a new leadership, but without success. In 2018 she lost to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and in 2020 to Armin Lasset. But he didn’t give up. And he was vindicated in 2021, with the third attempt.

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou