Sunday’s state elections are turning into a derby Brandenburgthe state that essentially surrounds Berlin. A state where the Social Democrats have been winning since 1994, a truly “red stronghold”, which for the first time cannot be ruled out to fall from the “blue” far-right, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), perhaps following the recent example of Thuringia and despite a bit of Saxony. And in Brandenburg, however, no party intends to co-govern with the Alternative for Germany.

The latest poll on September 19 on behalf of the ZDF network gives a marginal lead of 28% for the AfD and 27% for the Social Democrats. Derby is also tipped for third place between the Christian Democrats, who are on 14%, and the Alliance Sarah Wagenknecht to 13%. The Greens at 4.5%, the Left at 4%, while the Liberals have disappeared from the electoral map of Brandenburg as well.

The election contest in Brandenburg is not just another local contest. It is the last major election barometer for 2024, with 2025 being a federal election year. If the overwhelmingly low percentages for the coalition parties are confirmed here as well, the opposition will continue to question the legitimacy of the government. The only hope left for the Social Democrats is the preservation of the thirty-year government tradition they have in this particular state. And the trust of old voters, who do not change preferences easily.

Dietmar Voytke and Hans-Christoph Berd

When asked who the citizens of Brandenburg consider most suitable for local prime minister, 59% answer the current state prime minister Dietmar Voytke from the Social Democrats and only 16% the AfD candidate Hans-Christoph Berd.

On the one hand, Voytke is an old acquaintance of local politics, since 1993 he has been tested in various party and political posts, after his studies in agricultural production and mechanical engineering. In this election he chose to rely only on his name and political capital without references to Chancellor Olaf Solz, even though he too has his constituency in Brandenburg. “Whoever wants Vojtke, should vote SPD” say his posters.

His opponent from Far right he started out as an engineer, switched to studying dentistry and then medicine with a specialization in pathobiochemistry, according to his CV. In the space of the Far Right, Hans-Christoph Bird has been moving since 2015, and since 2018 officially in the AfD party, which the Service for the Protection of the Constitution has characterized here as “confirmed far right”.

Byrd has long campaigned by focusing on Brandenburg’s villages and areas that are forgotten by the federal government. At a campaign event in Spreewald, 80 kilometers outside Berlin, he said that if he won, it would mean the beginning of the end for the federal government, following the recent results in eastern Germany. “And then we could breathe again” as he said.

The first issue is immigration

Brandenburg, with about 2.5 million inhabitants, is one of the most sparsely populated German states, mainly based on agricultural production. It borders Poland and the city of Frankfurt an der Oder for example is only separated by a small bridge from the Polish city of Słubice. In recent years, this state has received refugees from Ukraine but also migration flows from the old Balkan Route as well as from Belarus. Border controls have been introduced from 2023, which have been intensified since last Monday.

According to opinion polls, immigration is the main issue that concerns the citizens of Brandenburg and this has made many turn to the Far Right, which has been “demonetized” here a long time ago. However, the hard turn of the Solz government on immigration in recent days seems to have given an upward push to the Social Democrats, who reduced the gap with the Alternative for Germany to one unit.

Despite the government’s tightening immigration policy, pledges for more deportations and six-monthly border controls across the country, the SPD in Brandenburg is choosing to keep a low profile and is emphasizing the “faster and better integration of immigrants” into German society.

On the other hand, the AfD is clear about the policy it will follow if it comes to power and does not hide. “A local government under the AfD will launch an initiative of mass deportations,” says the party in Brandenburg, even to Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. As for the border with Poland, he proposes a “fence”, but also imprisonment for immigrants found without legal documents.