The war was the shock that brought about the transformation of the European Union into a geopolitical unit. She received President Volodymyr Zelensky in Parliament, coordinated the arming of his resistance and broke away from Russian capitalism.
Even the taboo of dependence on hydrocarbons is under threat. In the name of the military effort, we are not far from seeing European ecologists voting to reopen coal mines. Politicians who fueled ambiguity about the Putin regime were electorally extinct. The candidacy of pro-European Emmanuel Macron for a second presidential term was a non-event. It’s reelection for war.
In the United States, the isolationist logic instituted by Donald Trump predominates. In his State of the Union address, Joseph Biden used Ukraine as a pretext to resume his economic reform agenda. Reports on investment in infrastructure and the regulation of insulin prices took up more space than digressions on freedom and democracy.
The American state provides military resources and puts pressure on Russian allies, starting with Iran and Venezuela. But the soul of the war remains in Europe.
Faced with the expansion of the Western bloc, Putin opened the second front: Russia itself. He imposed 15 years in prison for criticizing the conflict and shut down all independent media. Rumors circulate about the introduction of martial law and conscription. Shattered by sanctions, the Russian population also has to face the return of totalitarianism.
The dark, realist Putin romanticized by Oliver Stone, who came to power through an alliance between the security apparatus and extractive capitalism, already belongs in the history books. His speeches are all soaked in nationalist and religious fanaticism.
Kiev will be the first major battle of the Ukraine war. In the eyes of Europeans, the capital is the EU’s last line of defence. If it falls, the entire continent will be threatened by the millenarian military dictatorship.
In Putin’s view, Kiev “is the mother of all Russian cities.” The defense of the historical destiny of Russian imperialism justifies all means: the massacre of civilians, nuclear terrorism and the threat of the bomb.
Represented by their spokesman Zelensky, the most radical factions of the Western bloc advocate immediate NATO involvement in the creation of a no-fly zone, a mild euphemism for atomic war. But the hellish escalation must be avoided, and the first battle will not be the last. The defeated side will be urged to sit at the negotiating table being set up by Israeli diplomats.
As for China, it seems to play in another space-time. His support for Russia does not extend to Vladimir Putin. A power with global ambitions would never make a death pact with a doomed regime. But Beijing is aware of the fact that Russia, with or without the autocrat, will need to organize its post-war geopolitical reinsertion.
The prospect of an annexation of Russia and its formidable resources by China will force Washington to plunge headlong into the conflict. The ruins of Moscow will be the scene of the first direct confrontation between the superpowers of this century.
