In a sharp escalation of the months-long conflict between Israel and the Tehran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas militias, Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

Israel’s defenses appear to have managed to intercept about 200 rockets before they hit their targets, although Iran has claimed that most managed to land on Israeli soil.

In the last dramatic hours before the attack, reports citing White House officials spoke of an imminent Iranian attack.

Unlike the April attack, where Israel had days in advance to coordinate its defenses with its allies in the region, Tuesday’s attack came only hours after it had been warned.

Analysts estimate that therefore, it is difficult to see this new attack as merely symbolic and it now certainly looks like an escalation by Iran.

Israel and the United States have warned that there would be serious consequences if Israel was attacked by Iran, which backs the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris watched the attack on Israel from the White House emergency room.

In its statement, Iran referred to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard general Abbas Nilforousan, who were both killed in an Israeli airstrike last week in Beirut.

He also referred to Ismail Haniya, the Hamas leader who was killed in Tehran in an attack in July that he blames on Israel but which Israel has not claimed responsibility for. Iran warned that this attack represented only a “first wave”, without giving further details.

Threats of escalation from both sides

The warnings of the impending air strike on Israel came a day after Israel announced it had launched limited ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Iran’s attack on Israel represents the latest and sharpest escalation of tensions in the region, as the US and allies worry that Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip in recent months could plunge the region into a wider war and drag the West into another major conflict in the Middle East.

Israel may decide to strike back against Iran with much greater force than it did in April.

Following Iran’s missile attack on Israel, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the elite military body that controls the country’s defense, warned Tel Aviv not to respond.

Indeed, the Revolutionary Guards said that if Israel retaliated, then Tehran’s counterattack would be “more overwhelming and devastating.”

In his briefing to reporters, the spokesman of the Israeli Army, Vice Admiral Daniel Hagari, said that the Israeli Air Force continues to operate at full capacity tonight and will continue to strike hard throughout the Middle East, as it has done so far.

What might Israel’s retaliation be?

At the time, after a barrage of some 300 Iranian missiles and drones, launched in response to an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, there was a concerted international diplomatic effort to restrain Israel from reacting too forcefully.

In the end, Israel carried out a small but symbolic missile attack on a target near Iran’s nuclear facilities. It did little damage, but showed Iran that it had the range to carry out the attack.

This time, however, Israel’s retaliation may be more far-reaching as it sees its recent actions in the region as both a deterrent to its enemies and an elimination of the threats it faces.

Its targets could range from Iran’s nuclear facilities to IRGC bases to launch sites and storage infrastructure from where Tuesday’s missile attack was launched.

The most extreme scenarios being explored this time, according to US officials, include the possibility of Israel striking nuclear facilities, particularly the enrichment facility at Natanz, the heart of Iran’s program north of Isfahan.

Given Israel’s response, analysts believe Iran’s attack served no strategic purpose beyond sending a message to Israel that it should think twice the next time it seeks to attack Iranian interests or allies.

Tuesday’s attack marks a departure from Iran’s decades-long strategy of keeping armed conflict away from its borders by arming, training and funding militias in the region to expand Tehran’s military footprint without directly involving Iranian forces in conflicts with Israel or American soldiers.

Whether Israel responds quickly or not, Iran’s attack has inevitably extended the war and the region is headed down an increasingly dangerous and unpredictable path, analysts say