Paraguay will hold general elections in just over a year, so in 2022 the parties will have to define their electoral offer. In this context, although significant changes of direction are taking place in the region in Chile, Honduras and Costa Rica, it is likely that Paraguay will opt for continuity, as the Colorado Party, the predominant traditional party, seems to be on the way to keeping the reins of the power.
An indicator of its vitality as a political force was the October 2021 municipal elections, in which the Colorado Party won in 161 of 254 municipal districts, including the capital, leaving 61 municipalities in the hands of the other traditional party, the Authentic Radical Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Atentico Radical). PLRA), and another 32 in the hands of smaller alliances, movements and parties.
This electoral performance can be repeated if the Colorado Party is able to navigate its domestic politics with the sagacity it demonstrated in 2021. The definition of candidates for the 2023 elections is already in full swing. On the one hand, the internal movement Honor Colorado, led by former president Horacio Cartes, is launching a duo composed of Santiago Peña, a former presidential candidate in 2018 and a former finance minister of his government, as a candidate for the presidency, accompanied by by Pedro Aliana, current president of the Chamber of Deputies, as vice president.
On the other hand, the current vice president of the Republic, Hugo Velázquez, launched his candidacy for the presidency, supported by the “officialism” led by the president of the Republic, Mario Abdo Benítez, but adding other leaderships that are joining together around the new movement. Republican Force.
The Colorado Party’s internal elections are expected to take place in the first half of December 2022, and once the differences are overcome, the party, as a block, will campaign for its candidates. In fact, and in a very pragmatic way, Colorados use the term “scar operation” for this purpose. The success of this operation will largely depend on the continuation or alternation that is achieved.
Efforts to ally and concert
In addition to the dominance of the Colorado Party, things are moving in the Paraguayan political arena, as demonstrated by the multiplicity of actors who presented candidacies in the last municipal elections. Twenty-eight parties, 134 political movements, 121 alliances and 256 electoral agreements presented candidates for mayors and members of municipal councils. Obviously, one of the great challenges for the non-Colorado camp is to articulate a voice that can bring together many of these concerns and at the same time explore the differences within the Colorado Party.
A very concrete element of the Paraguayan electoral system conspires against this desire for political articulation, which is that the election of the president and departmental governors is defined in a single round with a relative majority. This aspect forces actors to decide whether to create alliances before there is a clear measurement of forces, as is the case in the two-round system.
This legal challenge is not negligible, both for the difficulties involved in building coalitions, and for a more fundamental fact, which is the Colorado Party, except for a brief interruption in the period from 2008 to 2013, having exercised control of the government since 1947. It is a party strongly integrated into the state apparatus that pulled the strings of power, including in association with the military during the period of General Stroessner’s dictatorship (1954-1989), but also competing in electoral contests since 1989.
As a result, the Colorado Party is not only deeply rooted in the state, but also in the clientele structures of transportation companies, contractors, and suppliers, among other sectors. In this context, opposition forces must take into account the inherent bias that favors the Colorado Party in electoral competition, for its control of the state apparatus.
PLRA and the third space
The current challenge within the opposition is to debate the terms of an alliance or compromise. For many, this is the best way forward, but concerns have arisen, on the one hand, about the programmatic approximation of the parties and, on the other hand, about a greater openness to debate the candidate of the alliance or conciliation. Bearing this in mind, the PLRA is having difficulty defining the programmatic aspect and is not willing to accept a candidate who does not come from its own ranks.
The deadline for the presentation of alliances or conciliations ends in June 2022, so the current discussions cannot continue “sine die”. If negotiations between the PLRA and the other forces are not successful, other alternatives may emerge that would leave the PLRA out of the picture.
On the one hand, a left-wing candidacy like that of Senator Esperanza Martínez del Frente Guazú, and on the other, a more center-based candidacy, with a citizen speech like that of Soledad Núñez, a former minister of the Cartes government who declares herself independent. and seeks a broad programmatic base, it could position itself for the elections.
The success of any of these other options is doubtful, but they can always remain in the collective imagination and become an alternative that affects the PLRA more than the Colorado Party.
Another more distant possibility is a concertation of the so-called “third space” that is built as an alternative to traditional parties. This should be forged within a programmatic framework in which left and center meet and which benefits from a migration of Colorado, liberal and independent votes, especially young people, considering that from an estimated 4.6 million voters, 1.4 million are between 18 and 29 years of age.
With so many pieces in motion, it’s hard to make predictions, but at the moment the Colorado Party appears to be the best positioned for the election race.
