The capital of Georgia, Tbilisi, is blue these days. The blue of the EU flag with its stars and the white of the Georgian state flag with its crosses dominate the parties’ campaign posters. No wonder: Georgia’s path to the European Union is one of the main issues of these elections. The goal of joining the EU has even been enshrined in the Caucasian state’s constitution since 2018. About 80% of the population wants it. Polls have consistently shown this for years.

Ironic: Georgia’s path to the EU was cemented five years ago by the same party that critics now accuse of driving the country further and further away from the EU: the ruling Georgian Dream party. “Yes to the EU – but with dignity!” is the current campaign slogan of the party. “With dignity” means: On our terms.

Between Europe and Russia

The former Soviet republic of Georgia has been independent since 1991 – now, for the first time, the country is truly at a crossroads: Europe or Russia. So says Renata Skarnjiute-Kereselitze from the Georgian Policy Institute, a think tank in Tbilisi. In an interview with DW, the political scientist states: “It’s not just polarization, as we’ve seen for years. The current government is threatening to completely ban opposition parties and crack down on independent media and organizations.” This is “really worrying”.

But is the “Georgian Dream” able to maintain its power with such threats? After three terms in power, it is not easy for any party to stay in government, as there is always a lot to criticize after such a long time, Skarnjiute-Kereselije reckons. Therefore, a change of government would be healthy for Georgian democracy. “However, it will be difficult for all Georgian opposition parties to decisively win the elections.” Because everything attracts the world with the same blue European flag.

The government is profiting from fear

But what does formal EU membership mean in real life? How hard will it be for the Georgians to give up some sovereign rights and allow some EU controls? How will Georgia guarantee freedom of expression and other human rights, the cornerstones of the European Union? How will alternative lifestyles be respected and how will religious, ethnic and sexual minorities be protected? Georgia is a conservative Christian country, characterized by the powerful Georgian Orthodox Church, one of the country’s most trusted institutions. Do these all fit together?

Russia’s war in Ukraine also casts its shadow. “No to war – yes to peace” is written on the pre-election posters of the “Georgian Dream”. This has sparked outrage as it shows photos of devastated Ukrainian cities – and picturesque Georgian towns next to them. Kiev protested this confrontation, without success. The posters are still up and their message is clear: peace can only be guaranteed by the current government in Tbilisi. All others are supporters of an ominous “world war party” that brings destruction.

Laws on the model of the Russian model

Georgia is still considered a developing country – but the “Georgian Dream” has taken up the battle for so-called traditional family values, as if it had no other concerns. Just a few weeks ago an anti-gay law was passed to supposedly protect family values ​​and minors, on the Russian model. In neighboring Russia, the so-called homosexual propaganda law has been in place for years.

Another parallel is the law on so-called foreign agents. It provides that organizations that receive a certain amount of their funding from abroad must register as “agents of foreign influence”. It passed parliament in May this year despite massive protests. And here the ideological shift towards Russia and away from Europe is evident. In 2012, Russia passed a similar law against alleged foreign agents, which jeopardizes the work of media and institutions critical of the government.

Incidentally, the law on agents cost Georgia a freeze on accession negotiations, after the EU had granted the country pre-accession status just six months earlier.

Elections with open results

For 28-year-old queer activist Tamar Yakeli from the Tbilisi Pride club, the rulers are only interested in distracting attention from their own failures. She tells DW: “I think the government is losing support in general. In the last twelve years it has failed to deliver on the promises of a welfare state.” Instead of improving the lives of citizens, the “Georgian Dream” sows division and hatred.

If nothing changes after the election, she is considering leaving Georgia – like many of her generation. But it is still too early, the result of the election is still open, he adds. And what do others think? Polls are unreliable these days in Georgia. Sometimes they say the ruling party has just under thirty percent support, sometimes it’s over sixty.

In any case, many people on the streets of Tbilisi want their country to join the EU as soon as possible. “I believe that pro-EU parties will win and Georgia will return to its European path,” says a young woman in Independence Square. “People are already kicking it, Georgia will soon be empty if things continue like this,” admits a young man. “Everyone wants better living conditions and we hope in Europe.”

For the political researcher one thing is clear: this election will also be a protest vote. Many voters decided to vote against the government in order to finally be more closely linked with the EU. “This election is an election for long-term stability and security,” rather than in favor of tightening ties with Russia. In favor of EU blue and not Russian white-blue-red.

Edited by: Kostas Argyros