The elections are almost here and no one yet knows what the outcome of the elections will be.

Polls so far show that in key states the difference between the two candidates is one to two percentage points or less.

Given all this uncertainty, the Washington Post breaks down the 7 possible scenarios that could play out in the election and how the winner could ultimately be decided.

Harris wins by a narrow margin

That would seem the most likely scenario, according to Washington Post polling averages.

The reason is that Kamala Harris currently holds a slight lead in four of the seven swing states – Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

And all it really needs is the ‘Blue Wall’. It is a term used by political pundits to refer to the 18 US states and the District of Columbia that the Democratic Party won in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

In these states Harris voters could be White and older voters. Those demographics typically favor Republicans, but Democrats have historically done relatively well with them even as they’ve seen some potential erosion with other key groups, such as blacks, Hispanics and young voters.

Democrats also tend to do better with white voters without college degrees — an important base of Donald Trump — in those states.

Another key factor that separates these states from the rest is that before the Trump era, they were always… blue. Barack Obama did not win either by less than five points in either 2008 or 2012. Democrats are hoping Harris can follow in Obama’s footsteps.

The fourth state in which Harris currently has a slight lead is Nevada, also blue even before the Trump era.

2. Trump’s narrow victory

A Trump victory is harder to predict, according to the Washington Post. He appears to maintain a lead in three eastern states, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

In Pennsylvania specifically, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed significantly, with Harris leading by less than one point. Trump has a slight lead in Georgia, and polls in North Carolina suggest he may widen his lead there.

In these states Trump’s gains in black voters could play a significant role. Georgia and North Carolina have by far the largest black populations among major states, and nearly 10% of the electorate in Pennsylvania is black.

At the same time, Democrats worry that black men in particular are more reluctant to vote for a woman president, with Obama recently warning black people in strong terms against voting for Kamala Harris.

But where Trump is most focused is on traditionally “Red States” (Georgia and North Carolina) that he is winning, while his huge investment in the most important state of Pennsylvania seems to be paying off.

3. Trump lead in the Sun Belt

At the same time, Donald Trump saw a significant lead in the polls in the so-called Sun Belt states, especially in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina – the three states in which he leads the polling averages. OR Nevadawith its limited public ballots, is considered a wild card.

The Sun Belt is an area of ​​the United States that is generally considered to extend in the southeast and southwest

The downside to this path is that it requires Trump to win more states. Even if Trump wins all four of these states, he will have to win one of the northern ones as well.

The four states listed are all more diverse than their northern neighbors, and Trump is actually making gains among black and Hispanic voters.

Issues that loom large in this region include housing costs, which have risen more there than in northern states. Illegal immigration could play a significant role if Trump takes Arizona and Nevada, given those states’ proximity to the border and the high rates of undocumented immigrants living there.

The three states in which Trump leads are also ones that until recently have consistently gone Republican. Before 2020, Arizona and Georgia had not gone blue since the 1990s. North Carolina had only gone blue once since the 1970s (in 2008).

The question that arises in this case is whether Trump can take a northern state with him. In 2020, he narrowly lost in Wisconsin, but polls in Pennsylvania show him closer to victory in that state.

4. Harris’s fight

It’s quite plausible that Harris has a lead according to polling data in key states and national polls. If he outperforms the statewide polls by about two points, he could sweep all seven critical states. And if turnout is as low as it was in 2012, he wins at least five of the seven swing states and about 300 electoral votes.

If Harris ultimately won, we’d be talking about how women supported her — not just because she would be the first female president, but also because of abortion rights. The abortion issue has swayed many voters, and the Democrats’ Supreme Court victory gave them a major boost, earning the best performance in recent history for the party.

More specifically, we could talk about how Trump has lost ground among white women, where polls now show him significantly behind in 2016 and 2020.

We could also talk a lot about Trump’s and Republicans’ extended late focus on challenges and issues like transgender rights — which don’t seem to have worked in the past — instead of issues like the economy.

A final key factor could be that Democrats were simply more motivated to vote — not necessarily because they love Harris, but because they fear Trump. The poll found that Harris supporters are more likely to be “angry” and “upset” if Trump wins.

If Harris does win, the question may be how close she comes to winning states like Florida and Texas.

5. A Trump disaster

It’s a fact that the polls underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020. What if they did it again?

If turnout in each state is as low as it was in 2016, Trump wins every key state except Nevada. If turnout is like 2020, Trump would get all seven. In either case, the Electoral College would look a lot like 2016, when Trump won 306 electoral votes. As for how it could happen?

Trump’s significant gains in the polls among black and Hispanic voters—particularly men—will almost certainly come on Election Day. Perhaps other groups would turn to Trump as voters’ reluctance to vote for a woman president would show up in ways that polls haven’t.

Such a disaster would likely mean a harsher verdict on the economy under the Biden administration than polls currently suggest. It could also shine a spotlight on the role of transgender rights.

Also likely to play a role is the fact that Trump appears to be more popular than he was on the campaign trail in 2016 or 2020, when only about 4 in 10 Americans liked him.

Recent polls show that over 43% approve of him. A Washington Post-Schar School poll last week showed 51 percent of voters in seven swing states disapproved of his presidency. This is the highest percentage he has ever collected since he was in power, except in the early days.

6. A shuffle

The above scenarios ignore the real possibility, which is nothing more than seeing something unexpected that doesn’t make much sense.

Maybe the northern states and the sun belt states split for various reasons. Perhaps Harris will lose a northern state but make up for it with Nevada and North Carolina — a state that Trump won twice but has a rapidly changing population and where Republicans worry about low turnout in Trump-friendly areas hardest hit by Hurricane Helene.

Maybe Trump will win Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia.

All of these states are close enough that there could be a strong swing either way. In every electoral process we see states that surprise us, as evidenced by the electoral errors.

7. A tie

It is unlikely but theoretically possible that we will have a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.

The most likely scenario in this is that Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but loses the rest and Nebraska’s 2nd district (where she has a big lead in the polls, but there aren’t many polls there either).

Assuming he wins as expected in Nebraska, the most likely scenario is that Trump will win Pennsylvania, Michigan and either North Carolina or Georgia — and no other state.

At this point, we would have what is known as “a contested election,” where the House would elect the president by casting one ballot for each state’s delegation.

Which party controls the most delegations will depend on election results in the 2024 election. But right now, it seems far more likely to be Republican.

It might be the least likely outcome, but with the two candidates fighting head-to-head, nothing can be ruled out.