When Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020, it seemed to be the death of his political career after his first term ended with a backlash even from within his own party after he first caused chaos by storming the Capitol.

If he wins Tuesday’s election, it will be only the second time someone has returned to the White House after previously losing an election.

“They step on him and he gets up twice as focusedsaid Brian Lanza, who has been a political adviser to the former president since Trump launched his campaign in 2016. “I don’t think anyone should be surprised by this comeback.”

Four years ago, Trump seemed to be getting all over the place. His Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, had defeated him by a comfortable electoral margin in the 2020 presidential contest.

The courts had struck down his attempts to challenge those results. His final campaign rally, in which he urged supporters to enter the Capitol as lawmakers confirmed the results, culminated in chaos. At the time, dozens of major companies — including American Express, Microsoft, Nike and Walgreens — announced they were suspending support for Republicans who had challenged the results of the 2020 election.

On the day of Biden’s inauguration, Trump broke with 152 years of tradition by refusing to attend the ceremony and instead returned to his private Mar-a-Lago resort earlier that morning, accompanied by his closest aides and family.

But before Trump left for Florida on Inauguration Day, he hinted at what was to come. “We love you,” he told supporters in Maryland. “We’ll be back in some form.”

A week later, it became clear that Trump would not have to wait long to assert his continued political influence. California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader in the House of Representatives, visited the former president at Mar-a-Lago, posing for a photo next to him. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack, McCarthy had said that Trump “bears responsibility” for the mob violence and recommended that Congress formally censure him for his behavior. Soon after, he was pledging to work with the former president to win a majority in Congress in next year’s midterm elections.

Trump’s Senate trial ended in an acquittal as most Republicans — including some of his critics, such as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — voted against convicting the former president that could have barred him from future elected office.

Republicans also worried that the former president might to create a third party.

The former president spent the next month mostly at Mar-a-Lago, only going out for golf or a private dinner.

By late February, as the furor surrounding the chaos of the January 6 protests subsided, he was ready to hold his first public event.

At the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Florida, the former president showed he still commands the loyalty of the Republican base. “I stand before you today to declare that the incredible journey we have embarked on together is not over.” He also hinted that he might win the Democrats “for a third time” in 2024.

From high to low and vice versa

From 2021 onwards Joe Biden saw his popularity plummet. By then, US military forces had withdrawn from Afghanistan, leading to the fall of the US-backed government. Gas prices and inflation were nearing highs not seen in decades. US economic growth, which had recovered from the disruptions of the pandemic, has slowed.

“Joe Biden has failed to address the primary concerns of voters,” Lanza said. “That gave Donald Trump an opening.”

Four of the six Republican House members who voted for Trump’s second impeachment and ran for re-election were defeated by Trump-backed candidates in the party primaries. Meanwhile, Senate candidates like JD Vance in Ohio and Herschel Walker in Georgia began to gain traction with Trump’s help.

“His endorsement guarantees you a primary victory,” said Brian Sejcik, who served as Arizona state director for Trump’s 2016 campaign and as western regional director in 2020.

But if the first half of 2022 was undeniably very good news for the former president, the November elections showed a very different picture.

Of four Senate nominees Trump has endorsed, only one defeated his Democratic opponent. While Republicans narrowly regained control of the House of Representatives, elevating Kevin McCarthy to the presidency, the party largely underperformed and Democrats retained control of the Senate.

Trump’s path to the nomination

His official announcement took place at Mar-a-Lago. Behind the scenes, Trump was assembling a campaign staff that – unlike in 2016 and 2020 – consisted of experienced political operatives. Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles may not be household names, but the former was a veteran of Republican politics with decades of experience, and the latter had helped turn Florida into a conservative stronghold. The two worked with Trump to formulate a presidential strategy.

While DeSantis was bogged down in Florida, Trump moved early to define the contours of the campaign, Lanza said. So Trump hit DeSantis in the face, belittling and belittling him. “Everybody thought Ron DeSantis was on top and couldn’t be knocked down,” Lanza said.

The Trump side also got a boost after investigations by prosecutors in New York, Georgia and the Justice Department in Washington. When the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago investigation into sensitive national security documents unraveled in August 2022 and culminated in a series of indictments in 2023, the former president became a central figure.

For many on the left, justice has finally been served. But among conservative voters choosing their party’s nominee in early voting states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, now is the time to rally around their party leader.

The indictments, according to Lanza, created a divide within the Republican Party between those who saw the indictment as an abuse of power and those who did not.

By the fall of 2023, Trump had a huge lead in most Republican primary polls. He skipped the Republican primary debates, depriving them of political oxygen.

Despite raising nearly $200 million in campaign funds, DeSantis dropped out of the race just days after finishing a close second in Iowa in January 2024. After Trump easily beat former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, the Republican primary race is essentially over. For the third consecutive presidential election, the party’s nomination was his.

Trials, tribulations and triumphs

The former president’s courtroom drama may have been a boon to his political fortunes, but it also hid legal risks. In May 2024, a Manhattan jury convicted Trump of 34 felony counts involving payments to former porn star Stormy Daniels to ensure her silence.

But despite his legal battles, Trump has seen his poll numbers rise. Trump’s approval ratings and poll numbers were rising. And after the assassination attempt on him in Pennsylvania in mid-July, he arrived at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee a day later as a hero to his supporters.

The head of Tesla, Elon Muskpublicly endorsed the former president and began funding Trump’s election campaigns in key states.

At that moment, it seemed that Trump’s return to the heights of American power, from the depths of January 6, 2021, was almost complete. A campaign that had initially defeated DeSantis and his other Republican rivals was now set to deliver a knockout blow to Biden and the Democrats. However, three days after Trump formally accepted the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, Biden abandoned his bid for re-election and endorsed his running mate, Kamala Harris.

In a matter of weeks, Harris has solidified her party’s support, inspired new enthusiasm among Democrats and even pulled ahead of the former president in polls. “Trump wasn’t really tested until Harris entered the race,” Sejcik said.

“Fundamental reorientation” ahead?

While Trump’s victory is far from guaranteed, to once again be so close to the prize is in itself a remarkable achievement. And if his political comeback culminates in another term as president, he will return to the White House having overcome obstacles – legal, political – that few presidents have faced.

With control of the reins of power and without the burden of having to face the voter crisis again, Trump will be able to eliminate these legal risks. And unlike in his first term, he will enter the White House with a team of advisers and administration staff who are completely loyal to him.

And even if he doesn’t win full control of Congress, he could use existing presidential powers to impose new immigration restrictions, implement his plans to deport undocumented immigrants en masse, and impose tariffs that could significantly increase the cost of imported goods.

Democrats warn that this would be a presidency without “safeguards” to curb Trump’s most dangerous proposals. Republicans hope he will be able to implement his agenda more effectively without the domestic resistance he faced in his first term.

And if he wins next week, Trump could fundamentally reshape American government for generations to come, the report concludes.