The Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris beat her Republican opponent Donald Trump in the state of Iowa, according to a poll, with women likely to vote causing — if the survey’s findings bear out at the polls — impressive turnaround tof data in the state that the tycoon had comfortably won in 2016 and 2020.

This poll of Mediacom Iowa/Des Moines Register in a sample of 808 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 28 to 31, has Ms. Harris ahead with 47% of voting intentions to Mr. Trump’s 44% in the state, which has voted consistently Republican in recent years. Although the difference is within the margin of statistical error (±3.4%), the finding reverses a previous survey in September that had Mr. Trump ahead by 4 percentage points, the paper said.

“The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or politically independent — are driving the late swing in favor of Harris,” the Register explained.

Mr. Trump had won by a wide margin, 9% and 8% (over Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, respectively) in 2016 and 2020.

However, another poll by Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense in a similar sample size indicated that the trend is completely differentwith Mr. Trump leading by 10 points over Ms. Harris. This survey also had a margin of statistical error of ±3.4%. He wanted Mr. Trump to have a clear lead among men and independents and Ms. Harris to do well in the under-30 percent age bracket of the electorate.

Nationally, the two rivals are reportedly headed for a head-to-head battle in Tuesday’s election.

Iowa carries six Electoral College votes out of the 270 needed to win, based on the US’s highly complex indirect electoral system. Both opponents emphasize the so-called “swing states,” contested states that could decide the outcome in the final stretch of the campaign, notably North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.