I do not envy the work of Chinese diplomats who, every day, hold a press conference at the foreign ministry headquarters in Beijing. They have worked hard to accommodate the country’s conflicting interests over the war in Ukraine into a coherent narrative.
Beijing upholds the principle of territorial integrity, which applies to Ukraine — but it also applies to China itself in relation to Taiwan, because, after all, the one-country principle is sacrosanct. At the same time, diplomacy spokespersons avoid at all costs using the word invasion for what is happening in Eastern Europe, recalling the “rock solid” partnership with Russia.
Faced with difficult questions about how to reconcile the two positions, they emphasize NATO and US responsibilities for the crisis, and repeat criticisms of military alliances and the Cold War mentality.
For the most incisive questions, they resort to the technique of returning questions: what about the US in Afghanistan? And in Iraq? What about the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in the 1990s? Although legitimate, the provocations do not resolve the issue of the moment: China’s position on the war in Ukraine.
Different political objectives pull the Chinese position in opposite directions. Balancing multiple interests, Beijing chose to claim neutrality — which it dubbed pro-Russian neutrality. The paradox reflects the strains of the Chinese position itself.
Such sympathetic neutrality on one side involves risks, and here I highlight one of them.
The deterioration of relations between China and Europe is dangerous. If the war brings Moscow closer to Beijing, it also strengthens ties between Europeans and Americans, as well as breathing new life into NATO. A global dynamic opposing the EU and the US on the one hand and Russia and China on the other is highly problematic for Beijing’s interests. China cannot afford to alienate Europe – which incidentally was the backdrop for Xi’s video conference with Macron and Scholz last Tuesday.
The European position, at the present time, becomes even more important in the geopolitical reconfiguration that is taking shape. And China’s stance on the war doesn’t sit well there. In addition to the brutal images of the conflict on television and on the networks, Europeans are witnessing a wave of 2 million Ukrainian refugees in their territory. Even if discreet, Beijing’s support for Russia has an impact on Europe more than anywhere else. Globally, but especially in the EU, China’s position influences its reputation, with potentially major geopolitical impacts.
This scenario changes if China comes to play a mediation role in the conflict. Beijing wins if today’s relative distance allows it to facilitate a diplomatic understanding, if it serves to lift Putin out of isolation and enable an end to hostilities. For a country like China, faced with a conflict like this, neutrality either serves a good cause or can harm its interests.
If it is certain that China can reap circumstantial gains, the possibility that the war will lead to a geopolitical reconfiguration that turns out to be unfavorable to the country needs to be factored into the final balance. While the authorities make their calculations and seek to reconcile different objectives, there is a lot of work for those who need to communicate Beijing’s position to the world.
