Amid concerns that Washington will take a more solitary path on foreign policy issues, let’s take a look at what his victory would mean for four countries
Donald Trump he has prided himself on his ties to powerful leaders that other presidents of the United States would keep at arm’s length. However, this does not mean that a possible election victory for him will be toasted in Moscow, Pyongyang, Tehran or Beijing.
And let’s get down to business, namely foreign policy issues. Many are wondering whether Trump can follow through on his claim to end the war in Ukraine started by Vladimir Putin, what he will do about the Middle East in which the US plays an important role, what will happen to North Korea’s nuclear threats and what will happen, too, to the trade dispute with China.
Amid concerns that Washington will take a more solitary path on foreign policy issues, let’s take a look at what his victory would mean for four countries that are in the spotlight right now.
China
During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs and other barriers to counter what he said were Beijing’s unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. Beijing is wary of Trump’s return to the White House.
Beijing shows little sign of changing its stance, either on Trump’s ties to Moscow or on its belligerence in the South China Sea, including exercises around Taiwan, the self-governing island it claims as its own, in which the Beijing could invade to prove it.
Many analysts note that Xi Jinping is likely to take advantage of Trump’s ego and make some symbolic concessions on trade, such as buying more agricultural products from the US, while also seeking to gain something else from this “alliance”.
Russia and the war in Ukraine
Donald Trump has repeatedly said he would end the war in Ukraine within a day if he took office. Trump’s praise of Putin during the war, calling the Russian president a “genius” and “smart,” is fueling concerns about what his return to the White House means for U.S. support for Kiev.
“Trump has shown a strong preference for Russia over Ukraine in both words and actions”according to Robert Orttung, research professor of international affairs at George Washington University. “But his policies are inconsistent with traditional U.S. national interests and will create strong backlash across the political spectrum, as well as within the intelligence community.” According to the professor, these groups are rightly wary of Russian intentions. Under Trump, the US will appear weak, divided and easily manipulated by dictators.
After their September meeting in New York, Trump said he had a good relationship with the Ukrainian president, but again showed his preference and love for the Russian president. Trump has made it clear that he wants to end the war in Ukraine quickly and could start negotiations between Russia and Ukraine even before taking office after his victory.
Ukrainians know very well that there is no easy way out, and that this will mean that the Ukrainian government will have to make painful decisions, which the Zelenskyi presidency does not take easily, but will be necessary if Trump wins.
Iran
During Trump’s presidency, tensions between Washington and Tehran soared after he withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
Two years later, Iran issued an arrest warrant for Trump and his associates after top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani was killed in an airstrike in Iraq. The prevailing view among Tehran’s political elite is that the situation will get worse for Iran with the election of Donald Trump. Many believe that the overall hostility between Tehran and Washington will remain, regardless of who is in the White House. However, a minority hope that a Trump presidency would be better for Iran because he is more open to deals.
The effects of US-Iranian relations will be felt throughout the Middle East. Tehran supports Hamas in Gaza, which Israel has been bombing since the attacks on October 7, 2023. The conflict has widened to include Hezbollah in Lebanon, whose leaders Israel has targeted, while the US and UK target Houthis in Yemen etc. With Trump, there is a winner and a loser. The messages Trump has sent so far could encourage Netanyahu to take the next step in the conflict with Iran.
North Korea
As the first US president ever to go inside North Korea, Trump told podcast host Joe Rogan that he was “getting along great” with the leader of the secretive state. But Trump’s view of Kim Jong Un as a “little missile” has fueled concerns about his attitude towards Pyongyang, which conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile five days before the US election!
When Kim and Trump last met in Vietnam in February 2019, Pyongyang came unprepared to make any deal. Now things have changed, analysts point out, stressing that North Korea will exploit all of Trump’s weaknesses.
During his first presidency, the presence of 28,000 US troops in South Korea prompted Trump to accuse Seoul of “free exploitation” of US military power. The current agreement expires next year, but in October the US and South Korea announced a new cost-sharing agreement for US forces in South Korea, which both sides wanted to finalize ahead of a potential Trump administration, according to CNN.
Source :Skai
With a wealth of experience honed over 4+ years in journalism, I bring a seasoned voice to the world of news. Currently, I work as a freelance writer and editor, always seeking new opportunities to tell compelling stories in the field of world news.
