When Donald Trump won the White House in 2016, champagne corks popped in Moscow. Eight years later and after two electoral contests and a devastating war in Ukraine, things have changed.

While the prevailing feeling is that the Kremlin wants the new US president to be Donald Trump, the reality is that whichever of the two potential future presidents is elected is unlikely to be in a position to deliver everything Moscow wants, he analyzes Politico.

If Donald Trump is elected

Since his first election campaign, the Republican candidate has enjoyed a certain level of admiration from Moscow. More specifically, Russian President Vladimir Putin admires and at the same time enjoys the admiration he receives from Donald Trump.

“Putin is a short, vain man,” says Nina Khrushcheva, a professor at The New School in New York and great-granddaughter of former Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev.

“The Kremlin likes the fact that tall, rich Trump is in absolute awe of Putin,” he added. “This gives Putin the upper hand,” he adds.

And while Trump’s powerful personality and fake tan may annoy puritans in Western Europe, the Russian elite are no strangers to displays of wealth.

Trump’s conspiracy thinking also resonates with a deep-seated belief among many Russians, fed by politicians and their propaganda, that ordinary Americans are being held hostage by a deep state.

The biggest attraction for the Kremlin when it comes to Trump, of course, is his stance on Ukraine. The Republican candidate has pledged to end the war in one day, possibly forcing Kiev to make territorial concessions. His running mate, JD Vance, is a harsh critic of giving more aid to Ukraine.

“Putin desperately needs a win”said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter. “A protracted conflict in which he is unable to win does not help his legitimacy.”

There is, however, a disadvantage to Trump, that he doesn’t always keep his promises. Specifically, during his previous term he failed to mend relations with Russia and lift Western sanctions related to the occupation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Eight years later, as Putin’s three-day invasion plan nears its three-year mark, Moscow doubts Washington’s hostility will be assuaged by even the most Kremlin-friendly president.

“The election will change nothing for Russia because the candidates fully reflect the bipartisan consensus that our country must be defeated,” wrote Dmitry Medvedevvice chairman of Russia’s security council, in a Telegram post.

He called Trump’s words about ending the war and his good relationship with Russia “commonplaces.”

“He can’t stop the war. Not in one day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he really tries, he could be the new John F. Kennedy,” Medvedev added.

“Whoever wins the election, we see no prospect of America changing its Russophobic course,” Russia’s foreign minister said earlier this week. Sergey Lavrov.

Undoubtedly, the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairsn Sergey Ryabkov put Trump on the spot this month after the former US president claimed he was close to reaching a nuclear disarmament deal with Moscow and Beijing during his first term.

No, that doesn’t correspond to reality, said o Ryabkov.

If Kamala Harris wins

Then there’s Kamala Harris, the candidate who received Putin’s sarcastic endorsement in September. President Joe Biden was “our favorite, if you can call it that,” Putin said during a panel at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, an event designed to encourage investment in Russia’s eastern regions.

Once Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Putin said Russia would do what the Democratic president had asked his supporters to do and “support” Harris.

“She has such an expressive and infectious laugh, which shows that she is doing well,” Putin said of Kamala at the time, drawing laughter from his audience.

Gallyamov, the former Kremlin speechwriter, dismissed Putin’s comments. “It’s a traditional KGB cover operation to benefit Trump,” he said.

But Nina Khrushcheva said that these could nevertheless contain a grain of truth.

Trump’s promise of a quick end to the war in Ukraine, even while securing territory for Moscow, may not be Putin’s preferred outcome. “He has made war the central element of his legacy, and so he will wage it for as long as he needs, wants and can,” Khrushcheva said.

Kamala Harris could help with that by extending a status quo that Moscow believes is playing in its favor as Western resolve weakens in the face of Russia’s relentless onslaught.

As a champion of the US foreign policy establishment, Harris also offers Putin a good justification for his endless war against what she calls “American hegemony.”

But whatever Putin’s preferences between the two candidates, US intelligence and technology experts have accused Russia of continuing to spread fake videos and other disinformation designed to influence the campaign.

If the Kremlin voted, there is no doubt that it would vote for chaos, polarization, and disillusionment with American democracy.

As of today, he appears to have a good chance of winning, Politico concludes.