Europe must become more independent and strong – regardless of who is in the White House. This is what Charles Michel, president of the European Council, told DW last July.

On Thursday, the summit of the 47 members of the European Political Community (EPC) will be held in Budapest, while on Friday the 27 heads of state and government of the EU will meet in the context of their own, informal meeting. And after the result of the US election, one question is at the center of interest: how will Europe handle Trump’s electoral victory? What does this development mean for support for Ukraine, NATO’s security guarantees and defense against the Russian threat?

Orban supports Trump

The host of the summit, far-right Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is currently also the president of the EU Council. So far, he is the only Trump supporter among the heads of state and government.

Over the summer Orbán had annoyed (or even angered) many of his colleagues when he went on a “peace mission” to Kiev, Moscow, Beijing and Mar-a-Lago (Trump’s home in Florida). At the time, the Hungarian prime minister claimed Trump could end the Russia-Ukraine war within days – adding that he was the only head of government in Europe who wanted peace.

Trump in Budapest via… video call?

Viktor Orbán planned to bring Donald Trump to Budapest via… video call to take part in the summit of European leaders. However, EU diplomats have categorically rejected this possibility, with Orban threatening to cancel a planned online meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

The latter wants to convince the members of the EPC and the EU to help Ukraine more, especially in the event that the US decides in January, as Trump has announced, to stop the financial and material aid they provide to Ukraine for its defensive war against the Russians. “Things will be completely different from now on,” said Chancellor Soltz. The German government will use every means to establish a good working relationship with the new American government.

EU ready in case US raises tariffs

Olaf Solz and many other European heads of government congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory, also stating that they look forward to continued cooperation with the US.

Beyond these formal diplomatic positions, however, the EU has already worked on how it will respond to Trump’s second term in terms of economic policy. The European Commission and member states have prepared a number of countermeasures, in case Trump does raise tariffs too much on products imported from Europe. Munich’s IFO Institute worries that the German economy could suffer losses of up to 33 billion euros due to Trump’s tariffs.

The EU wants to recover economically

The informal meeting of the EU’s 27 heads of state and government will have one and only one topic on the agenda: how the European economy can become more competitive against the US and China.

The former prime minister of Italy and former head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, has presented a related strategy report, where investments of hundreds of billions of euros are foreseen to stimulate the economy – without however making it clear where this money will come from.

The case of Germany, which has been struggling for months with recession and could drag the rest of Europe into an economic crisis, is currently particularly worrying. Berlin’s shaky governing coalition and domestically weakened French President Macron are hampering the Franco-German axis and expected EU-level initiatives – creating a vacuum that can be filled by right-wing nationalist forces around Viktor Orban or far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

What is EPK?

The EPC was established two years ago, after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and it includes almost all European states, Turkey and the states of the North Caucasus – excluding Russia and Belarus, of course.

However, the fact that the EPK, essentially an anti-Putin alliance, is meeting in Hungary might make the atmosphere a bit more… tense. Because Viktor Orbán follows diplomatic methods and adopts political views quite outside the European context. And the EU accuses Orban’s government of undermining the rule of law.

In addition, how productive the meeting will be will depend on the ongoing friction between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the one hand, and between Serbia and Kosovo on the other. Also, developments are running in Georgia, with the EU not yet clear whether it intends to recognize the victory of Irakli Kobakhitze or whether it leans more towards the pro-European president Salome Zourabishvili, who appears to be losing and talks of fraud.

Edited by: Giorgos Passas