Donald Trump is faced with a fundamental dilemma: to choose to remain true to his declarations for which he was supported by his voters, the implementation of which will nevertheless deal a significant blow to his presidency, or to choose to be politically and financially successful. He can’t do both.

Among the incoming president’s stated intentions, which he could move to implement immediately upon taking office, are the imposition of tariffs, mass arrests and deportations of immigrants, the repeal of the Affordable Act and major bipartisan bills passed under President Joe Biden, but also enacting a new round of massive tax cuts for big corporations and wealthy individuals.

These steps would no doubt please big donors, the right, but also his radical vice president. However, he risks potentially losing some of his popularity as the measures would cause economic and social chaos, subsequently creating political problems for his party in the 2026 midterm elections.

The question remains, therefore, whether Trump will follow a path to economic ruin or, instead, choose a more populist agenda that could broaden his and his party’s acceptance among a larger number of voters.

The Affordable Care Act is a case in point. In 2017, Trump attempted to repeal it, only to create a nationwide backlash. It ultimately failed to eliminate health care coverage from tens of millions of Americans. Since then, tens of millions of Americans have gained access to medical coverage, while the Affordable Care Act has gained in popularity and innovations have helped control costs. This largely explains why during the debate Trump claimed to be a big defender of the ACA, a big lie that nevertheless shows he has realized the mistake in insisting on repealing the nearly 15-year-old law. By Trump’s own admission, there is no viable alternative.

Trump could repeat the folly of 2017, inciting backlash among his millions of supporters and discouraging small and large business owners from providing medical coverage for their employees. However, now Trump may appreciate the very high political cost of repealing it. The alternative would be to make a few minimal changes to the ACA, claim credit for its continued success, and convince supporters that the program’s success is his own doing.

Instead, the mass deportation plan is the most popular rallying cry among white supremacists and aggrieved MAGA supporters looking for a scapegoat for their economic woes. That said, mass deportations could cost hundreds of billions as the scale of the operation would require massive police forces, deprive Americans of millions of workers, disrupt economic progress. Perhaps weighing the ramifications should lead Trump to cancel that particular plan, but that still doesn’t mean it won’t go ahead.

However, a false start and failure could well color the rest of his presidency, leaving him politically weakened, unpopular and facing a self-inflicted economic crisis. If it persists in a massive violation of human rights, the political and economic consequences can be devastating.

Instead, Trump could choose to build on the border bill he opposed, take credit for any reduction in crossings, and avoid the fallout of a mass deportation operation. The move would certainly be more acceptable to his tens of millions of Hispanic supporters who believe mass deportations were never a serious idea.

The trap of choosing disastrous policies will mean for him that he will either have to disappoint his supporters or give Democrats a golden opportunity to win over millions of voters Trump cheated.

Trump’s absurd tariff plan is also a conundrum. If he tries to impose blanket tariffs that cost consumers thousands of dollars each year, he will anger them and stall the economic recovery. While perhaps, a few individual sanctions aimed at China would allow him to bail out and avoid the economic disaster his stupid idea would bring.

As for taxes, the 2017 tax breaks expire at the end of next year. Trump and Republicans can choose to extend them, using the reconciliation process, which would show the budget neutral over 10 years. However, this carries extreme risks as the national debt (due in large part to the first round of tax cuts) has worsened.

Former Fed chief Richard Fisher warned that massive new tax cuts would lead to fiscal disaster and higher inflation. Similarly, the Center for American Progress reported in June: “If Congress were to permanently extend the expiring provisions, it would significantly increase the projected primary deficit and thereby increase upward pressure on the debt ratio by more than 50 percent.”

In addition, tax cuts for the very rich remain extremely unpopular. Democrats would enjoy nothing more than to paint the Republicans once again as the party of billionaires rather than millions of hard-working Americans.

If Trump chooses to follow through on his more radical campaign promises, as he is widely expected to do, Democrats should do everything in their power to sharpen the political debate. It is up to them to stand up for ordinary Americans, arguing for fiscal sobriety and humane governance. They must make it clear that Republicans bear sole responsibility for dangerous and destructive policies.