I will agree with the columnist of the conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine, who wrote these days that Trump is not so unpredictable. I’d say it’s pretty predictable that he likes to appear unpredictable, but the fact that he’s been president of the United States for four years and is a daily presence on social media doesn’t allow anyone to claim he doesn’t know the positions. of. Above all, he will not allow anyone in the future to be “surprised” when his words are followed by deeds.

Injectable bleaches and edible pets

It may be too much for some to describe him as a “fascist”, given to him by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris before the election. But that doesn’t change the reality of a president who recommended bleach injections during a pandemic and a few weeks ago accused immigrants of devouring the pet cats and dogs of honest Americans. Monsters, violent rhetoric against minorities, misogyny are not unknown to those who chose him to look for future justifications. They knew well who they were voting for. An extreme and authoritarian hybrid of tycoon and politician who has a string of convictions behind him for common criminal offences. And who already with his first moves shows that he wants to create a “strike team” of the most extreme personalities of the country to rule as a ruler. The choice of Matt Getz for the position of Minister of Justice has caused intense concern to many. 44-year-old Pete Hegseth, who has been selected for the Pentagon, is seen as a pro-war verbalizer with a stint mostly on… television sets. The proposed for the Ministry of Health Robert Kennedy Jr. has provoked at times with his questioning of the scientific community as a whole and not only of vaccines. And the list goes on.

A… predictable disaster

This is a good lesson for Europe as well. As long as politicians continue to separate far-right and neo-fascist party voters from their parties, exonerating them, they will only make them feel justified in their choice. And the worst: They will also push others there. And indeed supranational and transatlantic. It is characteristic that after the victory of Trump the far-right Alternative for Germany saw its percentages climb more.

So Trump is as unpredictable as the predictability of his authoritarianism allows. And the Europeans cannot fall from the clouds now to justify their inaction or their future unpleasant choices. His dominance has been for months if not certain, however the version that seemed to be by far the most likely. After all, how many sessions and meetings have we not seen and heard, where the main topic of discussion was “the looming Trump victory”?

What is now looming is the next mistake, which the European Union seems ready to commit, invoking the “Trump threat” and the change in the regime of transatlantic relations. In other words, to take decisions against the needs and concerns of society, attributing them to the “obligation” to deal with the new facts.

Another round of cuts?

A few days ago, the Financial Times wrote that the Commission is planning to “declassify” funds intended for the Cohesion Fund and allocate them for Defense, for fear of the US withdrawal from Europe. In the meantime, the Europeans, with the Germans first, have already allocated tens of billions for war needs. This will not only have (and here the word fits) unforeseeable consequences for societies that have stoically faced the crises of recent years. It will also be the best pass for far-right forces, who eschatologize, endanger and ultimately demonize democracy itself.

Everything shows that Trump’s alibi is now preparing European citizens for new “inevitable sacrifices”. The jump in military spending, the focus on the defense industry, however, was a plan that predates Trump. Mainly in the dreams of French “rulers” even before the war in Ukraine. The change in the US is now offered as an excellent excuse. The question is whether it will be used even when the European “producers” of military material will continue to export their products to various corners of the globe, where wars are raging that do not draw so much of our attention. Because when you produce, you have to export.