Ukraine on Monday welcomed the decision by the Biden administration to allow strikes deep inside Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by America.

The decision marks a major reversal from Washington’s previous stance, which was skeptical of the Ukrainian president’s calls to give the go-ahead for such strikes with US ATACMS missiles for fear of escalating the war.

The reversal comes two months before President Joe Biden hands over power to Donald Trump, whose election has raised fears about the future of US support for Kiev.

The effects on the battlefield

Ukraine will now be able to strike targets inside Russia, likely initially around the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces hold more than 1,000 square kilometers of territory.

Ukrainian and US officials expect a counteroffensive by Russian and North Korean troops to retake territory in Kursk.

Ukraine can use the ATACMS system to defend against attack by targeting Russian positions, including military bases, infrastructure and ammunition depots.

However, it is estimated that the use of these missiles will probably not be a sufficient condition to dramatically change the course of the war. Russian military equipment, such as fighter jets, have already been moved to airfields deeper in Russia pending such a decision. However, moving equipment further back from the front lines could make it harder for Russian troops in the field, as supply lines are strained and air support will take longer to arrive.

At the same time, the weapons may give Ukraine an advantage at a time when Russian troops are gaining ground in the east of the country and morale is low.

“I don’t think it will be decisive,” a Western diplomat in Kiev told the BBC.

“However, it is a late symbolic decision to raise the stakes and demonstrate military support for Ukraine. “It may increase the cost of the war for Russia,” he also added.

There are also questions about how much ammunition will be provided, notes Evelyn Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Obama administration.

“The question is, of course, how many missiles do they have? We’ve heard that the Pentagon has warned that it doesn’t have enough stockpile of those particular missiles to be able to deploy to Ukraine.”

Evelyn Farkas added that ATACMS could have a “positive psychological impact” on Ukraine if used to hit targets such as the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to mainland Russia.

The US authorization would also trigger another negative development for Russia: it would potentially allow the UK and France to grant Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. The Storm Shadow is a Franco-British long-range cruise missile with similar capabilities to the US ATACMS.

Could it lead to an escalation of the war?

The Biden administration has refused for months to authorize Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles, fearing an escalation of the conflict.

Vladimir Putin has warned against using Western weapons to strike inside Russia, warning that Moscow would see such a development as “direct involvement” of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine.

“It would fundamentally change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” Putin said in September. “This will mean that NATO countries, the US and European states, are at war with Russia.”

Russia has set “red lines” in the past. Some of which, such as the provision of modern tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine, have been breached without provoking outright war between Russia and NATO.

Kurt Volker, former US ambassador to NATO, said: “By limiting the scope of Ukraine’s use of US weapons, the US has unjustifiably imposed unilateral restrictions on Ukraine’s self-defense.”

He added that the decision to limit the use of the ATACMS system was “completely arbitrary and was made out of fear of ‘provocating'” Russia.

“However, it is wrong to publicize the change of stance, as it gives Russia advance notice of possible Ukrainian strikes.”

Comparison of missile systems of Ukraine – Russia

In the past, the US has allowed Ukraine to use shorter-range US weapons, such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) provided by Washington in the early months of the war, to strike Russian targets across the border from Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. , after Moscow launched an offensive in the northeast of the country in May.

The range of the HIMARS missiles provided by the US for these systems was about 80 km. ATACMS can reach about 300 kilometers inside Russian territory.

The Institute for the Study of War estimates that around 250 Russian military targets – including 17 air bases – are in the territory of the Ukrainian ATACMS.

In comparison, Russia has the Iskander missiles which have a range of 500 kilometers and can carry a nuclear warhead.

Ukraine