THE Vladimir Putin is back in the spotlight this week after his decision to change Russia’s nuclear doctrine if the nation faced an “existential threat”.

It was the week the US and UK crossed (yet another) Putin red line, allowing Ukraine to launch longer-range missiles supplied by the West into Russia.

It was also the week that Putin essentially threatened the UK, America and any other country supplying Ukraine with such weapons and for such a purpose.

“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” the Russian leader said in a speech on Thursday night.

So the question that arises is: “What will Vladimir Putin do next?”

As the BBC comments in its analysis, the answer is probably not even known to Putin himself, which makes things even more serious, as the columnist of the text, Steve Rosenberg, says.

Embracing scaling

This week the Kremlin blamed the “collective West” for escalating the war in Ukraine.

But nearly three years of war in Ukraine have shown that Vladimir Putin is one who embraces escalation as a means to his goals—in this case, control of Ukraine, or at least peace on Russia’s terms.

Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his decision to declare four Ukrainian territories part of Russia, the deployment of North Korean troops in the Kursk region, his decision on Thursday to target the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile— all of these represent moments of conflict escalation.

After these aggressive actions, Ukraine will prepare for more Russian attacks, even heavier bombings, the publication comments. Western governments will assess the threat level in light of Putin’s warnings.

Even before the Kremlin leader’s televised speech, there were fears in the West of the outbreak of a hybrid war.

The nuclear option

“Would Putin Use a Nuclear Weapon in the Ukraine War?” is also another question that needs an answer.

Announcing the start of his “special military operation” – the full-scale invasion of Ukraine – he warned “those who might be tempted to intervene from abroad”.

“No matter who tries to stand in our way or create threats to our country and people,” the Kremlin leader said, “they should know that Russia will respond immediately. And the consequences will be such that they will not you have ever seen in your entire history” he had said.

Since the start of the war, Western governments have crossed several Russian “red lines”: supplying Ukraine with tanks, advanced missile systems and then F-16 fighter jets.

However, the “consequences” from the Kremlin never materialized.

Last September Putin announced that he was lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons – the decree was published this week. A clear warning to Europe and America not allow longer-range missile attacks on Russian soil. But even this red line was crossed.

Earlier this week, when the pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets asked a retired lieutenant general how Russia should respond to an ATACMS attack in the Bryansk region, he replied:

“Starting World War III due to strikes on a weapons depot in the Bryansk region will probably be short-sighted.”

But Vladimir Putin’s address to the nation contained no evidence of that.

“Even Putin doesn’t know if he can use a nuclear weapon or not. It depends on his feelings,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov reported.

“We know he is a very emotional person. The decision to start this war was also an emotional step. That’s why we should take his idea of ​​changing nuclear doctrine seriously. They say the fear of war must return and it will involve both sides, but this is also an escalation tool. In this interpretation we must admit that Putin, under certain circumstances, can use at least one tactical nuclear weapon in the context of a limited nuclear war. It won’t solve the problem. But it will be the beginning of a suicidal escalation for the whole world,” he said.

The Trump factor

Vladimir Putin may act on emotion but he is also clearly driven by Western discontent and seems determined not to back down.

But he also knows that the world could soon become a very different place.

In two months, Donald Trump will be in the White House. The president-elect has expressed skepticism about US military aid to Ukraine and has been sharply critical of NATO. He also recently said that talking to Vladimir Putin would be a “smart thing to do.”

All this must be music to Putin’s ears, the columnist comments, meaning that despite the latest threats and warnings, the Kremlin may decide not to escalate at this time.

In other words, if the Kremlin has calculated that Donald Trump will help end the war on terms beneficial to Russia, then Moscow’s response could also change.