Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that the first measure he will implement in the field of the economy immediately after he is sworn in in January will be to increase tariffs on products imported into the US from China, but also from Mexico and Canadadecisions he justified by citing the opioid and illegal immigration crises.

“On January 20th, as one of my first (executive presidential) orders, I will sign all necessary documents to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on all goods entering the US.”he said, typing the word “all” in all caps, the president-elect via Truth Social.

The tariffs “will remain in effect until drugs, especially fentanyl, and all illegal immigrants stop invading our country!”added Mr. Trump.

In a separate post on his personal social media site, he announced an additional 10% tariff, to be added to existing and to-be-determined tariffs, on “all” of “numerous products arriving in the US from China.”

He justified this decision by citing the “massive” trafficking of drugs to the US market, “especially fentanyl”, a very powerful opioid that is largely blamed for his country’s ongoing public health crisis, and relatedly Beijing’s “broken” promises to the issue, such as that the death penalty will be imposed on traffickers of this substance or its precursor chemical components.

In general, it is possible to invoke reasons of national security to circumvent the rules set by the World Trade Organization (WTO), but its member states generally avoid resorting to this exception, let alone turning it into a tool for shaping trade policy.

The increase in customs duties, which Mr. Trump often called it “beautiful words” or his “favorite expression” during his campaign, long assumed to be one of the keys to the president-elect’s future economic policy. The Republican is not afraid of resuming the trade wars, especially with China, that he had ignited during his first term (2017-2021).

At the time, he justified this choice by citing the US trade deficit with China and what he described as unfair Chinese trade practices, accusing Beijing in particular of stealing intellectual property.

The Chinese government had retaliated, in turn imposing tariffs that had particularly hurt the American agricultural sector.

The administration of outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden kept some tariffs on Chinese goods in place and imposed new ones targeting specific items.

“No one will win a trade war”Chinese diplomacy warned, reacting to yesterday’s announcement by the US president-elect. “China believes that economic and trade cooperation between China and the US is mutually beneficial in nature.”the representative of the Chinese embassy in the American capital, Liu Pengyu, added in a written statement.

For its part, the government of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided last night that the relationship between the two countries is “balanced and mutually beneficial, above all for American workers.”

Before reminding, in the form of a warning, that Canada is “absolutely necessary for the energy supply” of the USA.

In this country, 75% of whose exports are destined for the American market, the news caused a shock.

The Premier of the province of Quebec, François Legault, judged that there was a “tremendous danger” for the Canadian economy. His counterpart in the province of British Columbia, David Eby, estimated that “Ottawa must respond with determination.”

Mexico “has nothing to worry about,” President Claudia Sheinbaum tried to reassure the day after the US election.

The three countries have been linked, for thirty years, by a free trade agreement, for which there was a renegotiation, under the pressure of Donald Trump, during his first term.

The room for the two US neighbors to “ignore the president-elect’s threats is limited” because they are critically dependent on the US economy, pointed out Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a US think tank.

For analyst William Raines, in order for the tripartite agreement to remain in force, a new negotiation will definitely be needed in 2026: yesterday’s announcements “are a classic Trump move,” first he “threatens” and “then negotiates,” he observed.

His announcement last week that he would name Howard Latnick, chairman and chief executive of the investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald who has been disdainful of China, as commerce secretary, confirmed that the president-elect is intent on forcing his trading partners to accept more favorable terms for Washington terms and bring back, at least in part, industrial production to US soil.

On China in particular, Donald Trump has promised tariffs of 60% on some products, as high as 200% on cars assembled in Mexico.

It also intends to proceed again with the imposition of tariffs of 10 to 20% on all goods imported into the US, and the European Union has already made it clear that it is “ready to react” in case of new tensions in the trade field.

Economists do not stop warning about the potential further rise in inflation due to the increase in customs duties.